美国联邦准备委员会日前宣布升息一码1。根据联邦公开市场委员会的点阵图，18名美联储官员中有16人预期今年还将至少再升息一次1。分析认为，这一举措将通过多个传导机制对中国房地产市场造成间接影响，其中最直接的表现为加剧资本外流，进而削弱国内购房力1。此外，美国升息还将增加中国房企海外融资的成本压力，压缩中国央行的降息政策空间，并削弱外资对中国投资的意愿1。
面对这一外部压力，中国央行坚持维持适度宽松的货币政策基调1。当前中国货币政策整体保持稳定，7天期逆回购利率自2025年5月下调后已连续15个月保持不变1。最近一次LPR调整发生在2025年5月，1年期和5年期以上均下调了10个基点1。中国8月份居民消费价格指数同比增长0.8%，较7月的0.5%有所上升1。
The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent rate increase is expected to reverberate through China's real estate sector through multiple transmission channels, according to analysis following the policy decision. 1 The FOMC's dot plot indicates that 16 of 18 Federal Reserve officials project at least one additional rate hike will occur before year-end. 1
The anticipated effects on China's housing market operate on several fronts. Capital outflows are likely to intensify as higher U.S. returns attract investor interest, which would erode domestic purchasing power for property. 1 Simultaneously, Chinese property developers face mounting pressure on overseas refinancing amid the widening interest rate differential, while the policy environment constrains Beijing's room to ease monetary conditions further. 1 Foreign investor appetite for Chinese assets may also diminish in response to the rate divergence. 1
Despite these headwinds, China's central bank remains committed to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy stance. 1 The seven-day reverse repurchase rate has held steady for 15 consecutive months following its last reduction in May 2025. 1 The one-year and five-year loan prime rates were last adjusted downward by 10 basis points in May 2025. 1 August consumer price inflation stood at 0.8 percent year-over-year, compared with 0.5 percent in July. 1
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