摩根大通投资银行已放弃对油价的预测，承认无法预测美伊冲突对能源市场的最终影响2。该行分析师表示"我们根本不知道如何模拟这场战争的最终结局"2。这反映了能源市场分析师普遍面临的困境——现有的预测模型无法准确捕捉当前局势的发展方向1。
摩根大通原本设定了多个经济底线，包括油价突破每桶100美元、通胀达到4%、汽油价格超过每加仑5美元以及10年期政府债券收益率达到5%2。美伊冲突已持续约六个月，这些预设的底线已被多次突破，而退出战略反而更加不明确2。该行9月时估计油价的"公平价值"约为每桶90美元，但市场交易价格已超过100美元2。特朗普上周表示伊朗战争不会在11月中期选举前结束，声称"大选后，油价会大幅下跌"2。油价持续上涨已导致全球生活成本上升，美联储主席凯文·沃什也因此宣布加息，理由是"通胀过高，持续时间过长"2。
JPMorgan has acknowledged its inability to predict oil price movements stemming from escalating US-Iran tensions, marking a rare admission of forecasting failure by the investment bank.2 In its analysis, the firm stated: "We simply don't know how to model the endgame."2 Energy market analysts across the sector face unprecedented difficulty in modeling the conflict's trajectory and its impact on crude prices, as conventional predictive frameworks prove inadequate for the current geopolitical climate.12
The bank's retreat from oil forecasting reflects how dramatically the conflict has undermined its initial assumptions. JPMorgan had previously established several economic redlines it believed would trigger a resolution, including oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel, inflation reaching 4 percent, gasoline prices surpassing $5 per gallon, and 10-year government bond yields hitting 5 percent.2 Six months into the conflict, however, these thresholds have been repeatedly breached without producing the expected diplomatic breakthrough, and exit strategies have become increasingly unclear.2 The bank assessed a "fair value" for September oil at approximately $90 per barrel, yet market prices have traded above $100.2
The uncertainty extends beyond energy markets. President Trump indicated last week that the Iran conflict would not conclude before the November midterm elections, stating that "oil prices will crash after the election."2 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh attributed recent rate increases to "inflation [being] too high and [lasting] too long," reflecting broader economic pressures stemming from elevated energy costs.2
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