澳大利亚新房销售市场出现明显疲软。8月新房销售环比下跌10%1，创下一年多来的新低，并延续了连续四个月的下滑态势1。过去三个月内，新房销售累计环比下跌19.3%1。其中维多利亚州季度环比跌幅最深，达27%，昆士兰州、新南威尔士州、南澳大利亚州和西澳大利亚州分别下跌20.2%、17.5%、10.8%和8.2%1。
高借贷成本和建筑成本的压力促使购房者转向购买二手房，这一趋势威胁到建筑业的前景。住房工业协会首席经济学家蒂姆·雷顿指出，"今日新房销售是明日的房屋启动"1，暗示销售下滑将导致未来房屋建筑启动放缓。分析师卡梅隆·库舍警告称，如果销售继续下滑，将导致未来房价进一步上升1。Cotality的预测显示，冬季房屋销售同比将下跌15%，低于五年平均水平的11%1，其中悉尼、布里斯班和珀斯的冬季房屋销售同比跌幅均超过20%1。
尽管新房销售陷入困境，政府数据显示2026年3月季度仍有244,000套住宅在建，创1984年有记录以来的最高水平1。但专家警告，当前的销售低迷最终将加剧澳大利亚的住房短缺问题，对政府在《国家住房协议》中提出的五年内（至2029年6月）新建120万套住宅的目标构成威胁1。
New home sales in Australia experienced a sharp downturn in August, declining 10 percent month-over-month to mark the lowest level in over a year 1. The slump represents the fourth consecutive month of declining sales, with a cumulative drop of 19.3 percent over three months 1. High borrowing costs and elevated construction expenses have prompted purchasers to pivot toward existing homes, a shift that is now expected to slow residential construction activity across the country 1.
The weakness is widespread, with major states recording significant declines. Victoria saw quarterly sales fall 27 percent, Queensland 20.2 percent, New South Wales 17.5 percent, South Australia 10.8 percent, and Western Australia 8.2 percent 1. Winter housing sales are forecast to contract 15 percent year-over-year according to Cotality estimates, substantially below the five-year average of 11 percent, with Sydney, Brisbane, and Perth each experiencing declines exceeding 20 percent 1.
Industry experts warn that the retreat from new construction poses serious risks to Australia's housing targets. Tim Reardon, chief economist at the Housing Industry Association, emphasized that "today's new home sales are tomorrow's house starts" 1. Cameron Kusher cautioned that continued sales deterioration will drive future house prices higher 1. The National Housing Accord has set a goal of constructing 1.2 million new dwellings within five years through June 2029, yet declining sales threaten to undermine this objective 1. Government data shows 244,000 residential units were under construction in the March 2026 quarter—the highest level on record since 1984—but the recent sales collapse suggests this pipeline may not be sustained 1.
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