中国驾校行业正面临深度衰退。十年间，全国新领证驾驶人数从2015年的3613万人下滑至2025年的2051万人，降幅达43%1。与此同时，全国驾校数量也从峰值的2.1万家萎缩至约1.8万家，超八成驾校处于不盈利状态1。行业龙头企业东方时尚2025年营收6.1亿元，却亏损7.4亿元，已连续第四年亏损1。产能利用率平均仅为28.6%1，产业困境显而易见。
生源结构的变化反映出更深层的市场变化。曾经占学车人群六成以上的25岁以下青年，如今比例已不足三成1。以山东临沂为例，96家驾校的年培训能力超过26万人，但2025年实际报名量仅有16.7万人，产能严重过剩1。投诉数据亦显示行业服务问题突出，2026年上半年福建省驾培相关投诉同比增长57.7%，武汉驾培行业投诉较去年同期上升30%1。
尽管面临困局，驾培市场仍存生机。全国机动车驾驶人总量已超5.4亿人，每年仍有2000万人选择拿证1。与此同时，公共交通扩张成为替代选择，全国54个城市已开通城市轨道交通，近350条线路在运营1。人口萎缩、网约车等替代性就业方式兴起，以及自动驾驶技术的潜在威胁，都在蚕食传统驾培的市场空间。未来，驾校行业需向透明收费、规范服务的专业化方向转变，方能适应新时代的市场需求。
China's driving school industry is undergoing rapid contraction, with the number of newly licensed drivers plummeting by 43% over the past decade.1 The annual figure dropped from 3.61 million in 2015 to 2.05 million by 2025, representing a loss of approximately 15.6 million enrollments.1 The young demographic that once formed the backbone of the sector has largely disappeared: drivers under 25 years old comprised more than 60% of students a decade ago but now account for less than 30% of the market.1
The structural crisis extends across the entire industry. The total number of driving schools nationwide has fallen from a peak of 21,000 to approximately 18,000, with more than 80% now operating at a loss.1 Average capacity utilization stands at just 28.6%, illustrating severe overcapacity.1 Even market leaders are struggling financially—Orient Times, the industry's largest player, reported revenues of 610 million yuan for 2025 but posted losses of 740 million yuan, marking its fourth consecutive year of losses.1 In Linyi, Shandong province, 96 driving schools have a combined annual training capacity exceeding 260,000 students, yet actual registrations in 2025 reached only 167,000.1
Quality concerns are mounting alongside financial pressures. Complaints related to driving instruction increased by 57.7% year-over-year in Fujian province during the first half of 2026, while Wuhan's driving instruction sector saw complaints rise 30% compared to the same period the previous year.1 Despite these challenges, the broader market for driver licensing remains substantial, with approximately 20 million people still choosing to obtain licenses annually, and the total number of licensed drivers in China now exceeds 540 million.1 The industry faces mounting competition from alternative transportation options, including ride-hailing services—which employed over 37 million people in 2025, making it the second-largest blue-collar occupation after domestic work—and expanding public transit, with 54 cities now operating urban rail systems across nearly 350 lines.1
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