美国国债市场面临重大转折。美国国债总额在2026年8月突破40万亿美元1，年度利息支付已超1万亿美元，相当于每天超30亿美元1。30年期国债收益率升至近5.4%1，10年期国债收益率达到5%2，均为2007年以来的最高水平12。债务成本的急剧上升引发全球投资者担忧，挪威主权财富基金计划从6月底的2150亿美元国债持仓中削减800亿美元1。
美国财政压力持续加重。2026年预计预算赤字接近GDP的6%1，美国债务占GDP比例已达约130%1，远高于德国的约65%1。美国国债扩张步伐加快：从2008年的10万亿美元增长到2017年的20万亿、2022年初的30万亿，再到2026年夏天的40万亿美元1。为应对融资困难，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特于9月9日宣布将国债回购规模三倍增加至60亿美元1，但分析人士认为此举不足以长期控制收益率1。此外，油价与国债收益率的关联度已创七年新高2。
The period of readily affordable government borrowing is drawing to a close as U.S. Treasury yields surge to their highest levels in nearly two decades. The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to approximately 5.4% 1, while the 10-year yield has reached the critical 5% threshold 2, marking the highest levels since 2007 2. This shift reflects mounting concerns among global investors about America's escalating debt burden, exemplified by Norway's sovereign wealth fund announcing plans to reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings by $80 billion from a June-end position of $215 billion 1.
The fiscal pressures driving these developments are substantial. U.S. national debt surpassed $40 trillion in August 2026 1, with annual interest payments now exceeding $1 trillion—more than $3 billion per day 1. The budget deficit is projected to reach nearly 6% 1, while U.S. debt stands at approximately 130% of GDP compared to Germany's roughly 65% 1. The rapid accumulation of debt has accelerated considerably, with the national debt reaching $10 trillion in 2008, $20 trillion in 2017, $30 trillion in early 2022, and $40 trillion by summer 2026 1.
In response to these pressures, Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen announced on September 9 a tripling of Treasury buyback operations to $60 billion from $20 billion 1. However, analysts question whether this measure alone will prove sufficient to manage yields over the long term 1. Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields have begun to correlate with oil prices at levels not seen in seven years 2, signaling broader market interconnections amid the shifting debt landscape.
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