市场普遍预期美联储将在本周三宣布加息决议。12高盛和摩根大通等主要金融机构均表示加息可能性很大，1路透社民调显示经济学家也普遍预期本周将进行利率上调。2若此次加息落实，将是自2023年以来的首次上调。12
经济学家预计，在周三的加息之后，美联储还会至少跟进一次加息。2全球银行在通胀意外上升的背景下达成了支持加息的共识。2然而，尽管市场对加息的预期很高，美联储仍可能选择保持利率稳定。1与此同时，美联储官员沃什与特朗普存在政策分歧。2
Major financial institutions and economists are widely anticipating that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday, marking the first such increase since 2023.12 Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have signaled a high likelihood of a rate hike,1 while a Reuters poll of economists reflects broad consensus that the central bank will move forward with the increase.2 This prospective action follows an unexpected surge in global inflation that has prompted agreement among major banks in favor of tightening monetary policy.2
Beyond the immediate Wednesday decision, market participants expect at least one additional rate increase to follow.2 However, the Federal Reserve may maintain its current rate stance, reflecting uncertainty over the policy direction.1 The policy environment has become more complex due to divergence between Federal Reserve officials and the Trump administration over interest rate policy, introducing an element of uncertainty into market consensus.12
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