全球主要央行本周将集中宣布利率决议，美联储、英国央行和日本央行均面临高企通胀带来的政策抉择1。油价上周首次突破每桶100美元，为7月以来首次，进一步加剧了全球通胀压力1。美国年度通胀率维持在3.4%，已连续5年多高于美联储2%的目标1。
美联储新主席凯文·沃什将于周三宣布决议，面临来自特朗普的降息压力1。特朗普声称美国应该拥有"世界上最低的利率"，并要求美联储"做爱国者"1。英国央行预计在周四维持利率在3.75%不变，但可能释放鹰派信号；其货币政策委员会9名成员中有3人在7月投票支持加息1。日本央行计划在周五将政策利率上调至1.25%，这将是该国30多年来首次达到此水平1。欧洲央行已于周四上调利率，行长拉加德表示中东冲突继续产生通胀压力1。
Major central banks across the world are converging on critical interest rate decisions this week amid persistent inflationary pressures. The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on Wednesday under pressure from President Trump, who has demanded the central bank adopt "the lowest interest rates in the world" and called on the Fed to "be a patriot"1. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates steady at 3.75% on Thursday, though it may signal a hawkish stance1, with three of the nine monetary policy committee members voting to raise rates in July1. The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise its policy rate to 1.25% on Friday, marking the first time the rate reaches this level in over three decades1.
The backdrop for these decisions reflects stubbornly elevated inflation across multiple economies. The U.S. annual inflation rate stands at 3.4%, remaining well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for more than five years1. Oil prices have intensified global inflation concerns, surging above $100 per barrel for the first time since July1. The European Central Bank has already moved, raising rates on Thursday as ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that Middle East conflict continues to exert inflationary pressure1. British Treasury Secretary Scott Benson has indicated possession of "asymmetric information" related to Japanese intervention in foreign exchange markets affecting the yen1.
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