9·11事件发生至今已有25年,其深远影响仍在塑造全球地缘政治格局和各国外交政策走向1。美国在反恐战争中采取过度军事干预,导致其全球主导地位受损,国际规则秩序衰退,权力政治重新兴起1。在这一背景下,新西兰的外交政策也经历了显著转变,从曾经寻求平衡美中关系的独立立场,逐步转向更紧密的美国对齐。
新西兰在过去十多年中不断加强与中国的联系,2008年成为首个与中国签署自由贸易协议的发达国家,2014年又与北京签署《全面战略伙伴关系协议》1。然而这种相对平衡的政策取向如今已成历史。2023年,新西兰工党国防部长Andrew Little宣布了首份《国家安全战略》,宣称"我们不生活在温和的战略环境中"1。在特朗普第二任期内,新西兰调整了立场,拒绝公开质疑特朗普对加拿大和丹麦等民主盟友的威胁1。过去22个月,新西兰加入了美国主导的战略集团网络1。尽管采取了这种靠近美国的政策,新西兰仍未能完全规避美国贸易保护主义的冲击1。
Two and a half decades after the September 11 attacks, their geopolitical consequences continue to reshape global power dynamics and the foreign policy choices of smaller nations like New Zealand 1. The United States' extensive military interventions in the name of counter-terrorism have eroded its international standing, precipitating a decline in rule-based global order and a resurgence of great power competition 1.
New Zealand's approach to great power relations has undergone a marked transformation. Once positioned as a nation capable of balancing its ties to both the United States and China, New Zealand became the first developed country to sign a free trade agreement with Beijing in 2008, followed by a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China in 2014 1. However, the strategic environment has shifted considerably. In 2023, Labour Defence Minister Andrew Little unveiled New Zealand's first-ever National Security Strategy, asserting that "we do not live in a benign strategic environment" 1.
This reassessment has coincided with New Zealand adopting a closer alignment with American strategic interests. Over the past 22 months, New Zealand has joined multiple US-led strategic groupings and has refrained from publicly questioning American threats against democratic allies such as Canada and Denmark 1. Yet this pivot toward alignment with Washington has not insulated New Zealand from American trade protectionism, demonstrating the limits of deference to great power preferences 1.
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