哈佛大学心理学家Matthew Nock领导的研究取得重要突破，在对600多名高危成年人和青少年的长期研究中，成功预测了75%的自杀企图和87%的自杀相关事件，预测时间窗口为事件发生前一周1。该研究将发表在《心理病理学与临床科学杂志》十月刊上，相比传统模型能提前六个月到十年预测自杀风险1。
研究基于近500名参与者完成的77000多份问卷数据1。研究发现躁动是自杀风险的更强指标，躁动程度每增加一个点，自杀企图的可能性增加11%1。Nock表示："我们需要更好地预测自杀企图和自杀死亡，需要更好地测量和预测风险增加"1。该项研究由美国国家心理卫生研究所资助1。
Psychologist Matthew Nock at Harvard University has led research demonstrating the ability to forecast suicide attempts and related events with unprecedented precision and immediacy.1 The study, conducted over multiple years with more than 600 high-risk adults and adolescents, successfully predicted 75% of suicide attempts and 87% of suicide-related events within a one-week window before occurrence.1 This represents a substantial improvement over conventional models, which can only estimate suicide risk months or even years in advance.1
The research, set to appear in the October issue of the Journal of Psychopathology and Clinical Science, analyzed data from nearly 500 participants who completed at least one full survey, generating over 77,000 questionnaire responses in total.1 A critical finding emerged from this analysis: agitation emerged as a stronger indicator of suicide risk than previously recognized, with each one-point increase in agitation levels corresponding to an 11% rise in the likelihood of a suicide attempt.1
Nock emphasized the significance of the work, stating that "we need better prediction of suicide attempts and suicide deaths, and we need better measurement and prediction of risk increase."1 The study was supported by the National Institute of Mental Health.1
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