中国海关总署公布的8月份贸易数据显示,出口保持强劲增长势头。1以美元计价,8月出口同比增长25%,1而以人民币计价出口增长18.6%。3其中对美出口表现最为抢眼,年增34.4%,1远超整体出口增速。8月进口同比增长28.2%,1贸易顺差达1190.9亿美元。2
前8个月的贸易累计数据同样表现良好。1以美元计价,累计出口年增19.3%,进口年增27%,贸易顺差达8055.1亿美元。1以人民币计价,前8个月进出口总值34.78万亿元,同比增长17.6%,其中出口20.17万亿元增长14.6%,进口14.61万亿元增长22%。3中国已实现连续4个月两位数增长。3
出口增长动力来自多方面支撑。人工智能商品、电动车、太阳能电池和锂离子电池等新兴产品需求强劲,1机电产品出口尤为突出,前8个月出口12.91万亿元,增长21.9%。3同时,稀土产品虽然出口量有所下降——前8个月出口3万9441吨,同比下降11.1%,但出口金额却同比增长53.5%至4.34亿美元。1
分析人士预计,第三季度可能是今年外贸增长的高点。2由于第四季度基期较高,出口增幅有望放缓,全年出口增幅预估落在15%左右,进口增幅约25%。2
China's customs authority released August trade figures showing robust export growth. 1 August exports grew 25% year-on-year in US dollar terms, while shipments to the United States climbed 34.4%. 1 Imports expanded 28.2% in the same period. 1
The first eight months of 2024 demonstrated sustained momentum, with exports rising 19.3% and imports climbing 27%, generating a trade surplus of $805.51 billion. 1 During this period, exports to the United States grew 6.2% while imports from America increased 3.4%. 1 Rare earth exports reflected divergent trends: volume declined 11.1% to 39,441 tons, yet export values surged 53.5% to $434 million. 1 August rare earth exports recovered to 4,735.1 tons compared to 4,223.5 tons in July. 1
Analysts attribute the export strength to surging demand for AI-related goods, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar energy products. 2 However, market observers project that fourth-quarter growth rates will moderate due to high comparison bases from the prior year, with the third quarter representing 2024's peak performance. 2
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