超级厄尔尼诺事件在热带太平洋持续增强，最新观测数据显示其强度已创历史新高。赤道太平洋西风异常达到86年来的记录水平[1]，海表温度异常超过5度，部分区域甚至突破6度[1]。更深层的海洋也呈现异常升温，海表下250米深度的温度异常达到9度[1]。多变量ENSO指数（MEI）达到2.4，为1979年以来同期最高值[1]。驱动这一增强的是创纪录级别的西风异常和强大的开尔文波，将持续向东传播温暖海水[1]。
根据最新长期预报，该事件的发展速度已超过2015-2016年上一个超级厄尔尼诺事件[1]，预计将在2026年11月至12月达到峰值[1]。主ENSO区域的温度异常可能达到4度，超过3度的非官方极值阈值[1]，强度将超过过往所有超级厄尔尼诺事件[1]。这一创纪录事件预计对全球冬季天气产生显著影响[1]。在北美地区，2026/2027年冬季预报显示将形成深层低气压槽和加拿大阻挡高气压[1]；而欧洲冬季格局则以西风流为主，气温总体高于正常水平[1]。
A powerful El Niño event continues to intensify across the tropical Pacific, with new data indicating it has already exceeded the strength of all previous "super" El Niño episodes on record [1]. The phenomenon is being driven by equatorial Pacific westerly wind anomalies that have reached their highest level in 86 years, along with powerful Kelvin waves transporting warm water eastward [1]. Sea surface temperatures have climbed above 5 degrees Celsius above normal in the main development region, with localized areas exceeding 6 degrees, while subsurface temperatures at 250 meters depth have reached anomalies of 9 degrees Celsius [1].
The event is developing faster than the previous super El Niño of 2015–2016, with the Multivariate ENSO Index reaching 2.4—its highest value for this period since 1979 [1]. Forecasters project the main ENSO region temperature anomaly could reach 4 degrees Celsius, surpassing the unofficial extreme threshold of 3 degrees, with peak intensity anticipated in November and December 2026 [1].
Northern Hemisphere winter weather patterns are expected to show significant disruption, with North America forecast to experience a pronounced upper-level trough and a blocking high pressure system over Canada during the 2026–2027 winter season [1]. Europe, by contrast, is anticipated to remain under a primarily zonal westerly flow pattern with temperatures running above normal for the season [1].