《卫报》发布独家分析,对比当前民调背景下多种投票制度对英国议会的影响 [1]。研究结果揭示,现行制度下席位分配与选票占比存在巨大偏差。
在第一过去杆制(首先到达终点制)下,改革党将获得46%的议会席位,而其选票占比仅为28% [1]。相比之下,比例代表制下的地区政党名单制会使改革党的席位占比(28%)与选票占比相符 [1]。附加成员制下改革党将获33%席位而得票28% [1],单一可转移投票制下则为27%席位配28%选票 [1]。这种制度设计的偏差程度各不相同——绿党每获得一个席位需要280,000张选票,而改革党仅需26,000张 [1]。
对比之下,2024年大选中工党领导人基尔·斯塔默以34%的选票赢得了650个议会席位中的411个 [1]。
候任首相安迪·伯纳姆于2026年5月表示,"我致力于比例代表制。我认为它会改变政治文化" [1]。工党、自民党和绿党等多个党派均支持这一立场。不过,英国选民在2011年关于替代投票制的公投中明确拒绝了选举改革 [1]。
The Guardian has released an exclusive analysis comparing how different voting systems would reshape Britain's parliament based on current polling data [1]. The research reveals stark disparities in seat distribution across various electoral models, particularly highlighting how the current first-past-the-post system benefits some parties while disadvantaging others.
Under the existing first-past-the-post system, Reform would secure 46% of parliamentary seats despite receiving only 28% of the vote [1]. In contrast, regional party list proportional representation would align Reform's seat share directly with its vote share at 28% [1]. Under the additional member system, Reform would gain 33% of seats for 28% of votes [1], while the single transferable vote system would result in 27% of seats and 26% of votes [1].
The analysis underscores significant inefficiencies in seat allocation. The Green Party faces a seat cost of 280,000 votes, whereas Reform's cost stands at just 26,000 votes per seat [1].
Incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham has expressed strong backing for proportional representation, stating: "I am committed to proportional representation. I think it would change the culture of politics" [1]. This position aligns with support from multiple parties including Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens [1].
The latest general election in 2024 saw Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party secure 411 of 650 parliamentary seats with 34% of the vote [1]. Electoral reform efforts have faced setbacks in the past; voters explicitly rejected the alternative vote system in a 2011 referendum [1].