埃隆·马斯克近日向《经济学人》表示，如果人工智能和机器人提供的商品与服务极其丰富到超过任何人类可能消费的量，"你还需要金钱做什么？"[1] 这一论断引发了对其预言可信度的广泛质疑。
马斯克曾多次做出未能按期实现的宏大承诺。他在2011年预言SpaceX将在十年内将人类送上火星，此后多次修改预期但至今未实现[1]；2018年声称特斯拉将推出完全自动驾驶汽车，使拥有传统车辆"等同于骑马进城"，11年后该承诺仍未兑现[1]；2016年宣布Neuralink芯片将于2021年上市，迄今无进展[1]；2019年预言2020年前将有100万辆自动驾驶机器人出租车上路，而实际美国道路上不足50辆[1]。
对于马斯克的最新论断，诺贝尔经济学奖得主达龙·阿塞莫格鲁提出挑战，建议他"若金钱在2036年前将无关紧要，何不承诺在此前捐出约1万亿美元个人财富？"[1] 马斯克回应称"打算做类似的事"，但未提供具体细节或时间表[1]。此外，马斯克在2024年担任政府效率部门期间，未能发现其声称的联邦政府"浪费、欺诈和滥用"，政府支出反而增加[1]，进一步削弱了其言论的说服力。
Elon Musk has asserted that artificial intelligence and robotics will render money meaningless within ten years. Speaking to The Economist, Musk questioned the necessity of currency in a future where machines and AI produce goods and services in such abundance that no human could consume them all.[1]
However, Musk's track record of ambitious predictions raises questions about the credibility of this claim. In 2011, he predicted SpaceX would land humans on Mars within a decade, a timeline that has been repeatedly pushed back and remains unrealized.[1] Similarly, Musk declared in 2018 that Tesla would deploy fully autonomous vehicles, making traditional cars obsolete, yet more than a decade later this goal remains unachieved.[1] His 2016 promise that Neuralink would have chips on the market by 2021 has produced no results, and his 2019 forecast of one million autonomous robot taxis operating by 2020 fell drastically short, with fewer than 50 such vehicles currently on American roads.[1]
Musk's recent tenure leading a government efficiency initiative has also proved disappointing. Despite claiming to identify vast "waste, fraud and abuse" in federal spending, he failed to deliver on these assertions, and government expenditures have actually increased during this period.[1] Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu challenged Musk's vision by suggesting that if money will be irrelevant by 2036, Musk should pledge to donate his approximately one trillion dollar personal fortune by then.[1] When asked about this proposal, Musk responded that he "intends to do something similar," but provided no specific details or timeline for such action.[1]