亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软等科技巨头近年来大量投资天然气发电厂为AI数据中心供电，但能源研究公司Noreva的最新预测可能给这一战略蒙上阴影[1]。根据Noreva的分析，美国部分地区天然气价格在未来几年内可能升至当前价格的三倍[1]，这将给这些公司带来显著的能源成本压力。
具体来看，Meta计划在路易斯安那州建设7.5吉瓦天然气发电厂[1]，而微软和谷歌各计划在得州建设1吉瓦级设施[1]，亚马逊计划在得州建设7.6吉瓦天然气发电厂[1]。Noreva CEO Peter Gardett表示，"只需简单的算术就能看出，天然气市场的供应紧张程度将远超几年前的水平"[1]。根据预测，天然气价格可能升至某些枢纽上方每百万英热单位10美元，而目前价格范围为2至4.50美元[1]。鉴于燃料成本约占大型电厂电力成本的一半[1]，这一价格上涨将直接冲击这些企业的运营成本。
Major technology companies including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft have made substantial commitments to natural gas power generation for their artificial intelligence data centers in recent years.[1] However, energy research firm Noreva has issued a warning that could fundamentally alter the economics of these investments, predicting that natural gas prices in certain U.S. regions may triple from current levels over the coming years.[1]
The scale of these infrastructure projects is considerable. Meta is planning to construct a 7.5-gigawatt natural gas power plant in Louisiana, while Microsoft and Google each intend to build 1-gigawatt facilities in Texas.[1] Amazon's commitment is even larger, with plans for a 7.6-gigawatt natural gas power plant in Texas.[1] According to Noreva CEO Peter Gardett, the market dynamics have shifted significantly: "You just need simple arithmetic to get to a much tighter gas market than you were in just a few years ago."[1]
Current natural gas prices range from $2 to $4.50 per million BTU, but Noreva forecasts that prices at certain hubs could climb above $10 per million BTU.[1] This projection carries substantial financial implications, as fuel costs represent approximately half of the operating expenses for large power plants.[1] The concern extends beyond corporate boardrooms, with 80 percent of consumers expressing worry about the impact of data centers on electricity costs.[1]