源自极右翼的"大替换理论"正在澳大利亚政治中获得影响力。这一理论声称西方左翼精英通过移民政策策划"白人种族灭绝"[1]，如今已被工党和自由党领袖采纳类似叙事[1]。澳大利亚自由党主席托尼·阿博特曾表示："对绿左、文化马克思主义政府来说，来自全球南方的大规模移民不是问题，是计划"[1]。基于这一理论，自由党要求将移民数量降至2009年以来最低水平[1]。
然而澳大利亚的实际数据与这些主张相悖。2024-2025年澳大利亚净移民数量为30.6万人，其中超过一半是持临时签证的国际学生，这些学生无投票权[1]。相比之下，2022-23年度移民数量曾达73.7万人，该年有21.9万人离澳，净迁移为51.8万人[1]。
极右翼政客正进一步推进相关政策主张。一国党参议员马尔科姆·罗伯茨2025年在布里斯班一场反移民会议上表示："遣返政策是我演讲的第二部分。取出那些不适应或我们不需要的人，把他们送回家"[1]。与此同时，美国特朗普政府2025年悄悄在国务院设立了"遣返办公室"，但官网上无任何公开信息[1]。
A far-right conspiracy theory originating from Trump supporters has begun infiltrating Australia's mainstream political discourse. The "Great Replacement" theory alleges that left-wing elites orchestrate "white genocide" through immigration policy and has become a rallying point for advocating deportation policies targeting non-white migrants [1]. Despite this narrative gaining political prominence, Australia's net migration figures tell a different story: the country recorded 306,000 net migrants in 2024-2025, with more than half being temporary international students without voting rights [1].
Australian political leaders have increasingly adopted rhetoric aligned with the conspiracy theory's framing. Liberal Party chair Tony Abbott has written that "for the green-left, cultural Marxist government, mass migration from the global south is not a problem—it's the plan" [1]. Meanwhile, One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts declared at a Brisbane anti-immigration conference in 2025 that "deportation is the second part of my speech. Taking out those who don't fit in or those we don't need and sending them home" [1]. The Liberal Party has called for reducing immigration to its lowest levels since 2009 [1].
This shift in political messaging coincides with developments abroad: the Trump administration quietly established a "deportation office" within the State Department in 2025, though no public information about the office appears on official websites [1].