澳大利亚前驻华大使格雷厄姆·弗莱彻在近期发表观点指出，中国的理想目标是让澳大利亚成为"南半球的柬埔寨"，但这"永远不会发生"[1]。弗莱彻表示，"中国明确想要赢，并把美国从全球领导地位上取代"[1]，但这一地缘政治目标面临现实能力的制约。
中澳关系在2020年因澳大利亚要求独立调查COVID-19起源而"内爆"，中国随后对澳实施了价值200亿美元的贸易制裁[1]。经历这一关键时期后，关系在2022年政府更替后开始缓和，澳大利亚记者程雷在被关押超过三年后于2023年10月获释[1]。弗莱彻认为中澳关系已被永久改变，稳定化政策是可行的现实主义选择，而非恢复到过往状态[1]。
在台湾问题上，弗莱彻预判Xi Jinping对台湾统一的遗产追求将优先寻求政治解决方案而非军事行动[1]，这一地区焦点问题在2030年代前可能维持现状[1]。现已从40年公务生涯退休的弗莱彻现任洛伊国际政策研究所非常驻研究员[1]。
Graham Fletcher, Australia's former ambassador to China, has characterized Beijing's ideal objective for Canberra as making Australia into a "Cambodia of the Southern Hemisphere," though he emphasized this "will never happen."[1] According to Fletcher, China's broader strategic ambition is clear: the nation "explicitly wants to win and replace the United States from its position of global leadership."[1]
The relationship between the two countries experienced severe deterioration in 2020 when Australia called for an independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19, prompting China to impose approximately $20 billion in trade sanctions in response.[1] Relations began to stabilize following a change of government in 2022, marked by the October 2023 release of Australian journalist Cheng Lei after more than three years of detention.[1] Fletcher characterized the shift as a realistic stabilization policy rather than a genuine reset of ties, suggesting the relationship has been "permanently altered."[1]
Regarding Taiwan, Fletcher assessed that Xi Jinping's legacy regarding unification will prioritize political solutions over military action, with the status quo likely to persist through the 2030s.[1] Fletcher, who has retired from a 40-year diplomatic career, currently serves as a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy.[1]