根据绿色智库Verdant的分析,英国今年夏季多次热浪导致的经济产出损失已达4.4亿英镑,截至7月底[1]。其中6月单月的热浪造成的经济成本达2.36亿英镑[1],伦敦政治经济学院Grantham研究所估计6月热浪单独造成超1亿英镑的产出损失[1]。
热浪对经济的冲击主要源于劳动生产率下降和基础设施故障[1]。根据保险公司Allianz的数据,当气温每升高1度(超过30摄氏度时),工人产出每小时下降3%[1]。调查显示,在6月22日当周,87%的受访者因高温经历至少一项健康影响,其中3.6%的受访者在该周完全没有工作[1]。英国今年已发生5月、6月、7月三次热浪[1],气象预报称英国有望创造最热夏季纪录[1],近四分之三地区被宣布处于官方干旱状态[1]。
若热浪按过去十年的加剧速度继续发展,年度经济成本可能在2030年前升至25亿英镑以上[1]。工会要求在气温超过24摄氏度时采取降温措施,30摄氏度时停止工作,体力劳动则为27摄氏度[1]。
Multiple heatwaves across the United Kingdom this summer have inflicted significant economic damage, with analysis from green think tank Verdant estimating losses of £4.4 billion in reduced output by the end of July [1]. The June heatwave alone accounted for £2.36 billion of this toll [1], while researchers at the London School of Economics's Grantham Institute independently calculated that month's extreme temperatures caused over £1 billion in lost productivity [1].
The economic impact stems primarily from reduced worker productivity during extreme heat and infrastructure failures triggered by overheating. According to data from Allianz insurance, worker output declines by 3 percent per hour for every degree Celsius above 30°C [1]. A survey of working adults found that 87 percent experienced at least one health-related effect during the week of June 22 due to high temperatures, while 3.6 percent did not work at all that week [1]. The UK has experienced three separate heatwaves so far in 2024, occurring in May, June, and July [1], with weather forecasters predicting the country could set a record for its hottest summer [1].
If current warming trends persist at the pace of the past decade, annual economic costs could exceed £25 billion by 2030 [1]. Nearly three-quarters of England have been declared in official drought status [1]. Trade unions have called for workplace cooling measures to be implemented when temperatures exceed 24°C, with mandatory work cessation at 30°C for most workers and 27°C for those engaged in physical labor [1].