荷兰乌得勒支大学的最新研究表明，大西洋子午线翻转环流（AMOC）的稳定性不仅取决于最终升温幅度，更关键地取决于气候变暖的速度[1]。在快速变暖情景下（年均增速2.5 ppm），AMOC在升温约2°C时会发生崩溃；相比之下，在缓慢变暖情景下（年均增速0.5 ppm），即使升温达到5°C，AMOC仍然保持稳定[1]。
该研究发表在《自然气候变化》期刊，由René van Westen、Reyk Börner和Henk Dijkstra等研究人员完成[1]。研究发现，气候变暖的临界速率约为每十年升温0.3°C，而全球当前的变暖速度已接近这一速率[1]。这一发现挑战了传统观点，传统研究认为AMOC存在固定的温度临界点（约在升温4°C时出现）[1]。van Westen表述了这一关键认识："AMOC的稳定性取决于气候变化的速度，而不是必然的固定温度"[1]。
这项研究对气候变化政策具有重要启示意义，表明控制变暖速度可能同样重要，甚至比控制最终升温幅度更为关键。
Researchers at Utrecht University's Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research have discovered that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) depends critically on the rate of climate warming, not merely on the final temperature increase.[1] Under rapid warming scenarios of 2.5 parts per million per year, AMOC would collapse at approximately 2°C of warming, while under slower warming of 0.5 ppm per year, the system remains stable even at 5°C of warming.[1] This finding challenges the conventional model that assumes a fixed temperature threshold, which previously suggested a critical point around 4°C of warming.[1]
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, identifies a critical warming rate of roughly 0.3°C per decade, a threshold the world is already approaching.[1] Lead researcher René van Westen stated that "AMOC stability depends on the speed of climate change, rather than a necessarily fixed temperature."[1] The research was conducted by scientists including Reyk Börner and Henk Dijkstra.[1]