伊拉克正面临严重的财政困难。由于伊朗自2月以来因以色列和美国对伊朗空袭而封锁霍尔木兹海峡，伊拉克的油气出口大幅下滑[1]。3月份出口相比去年同期下降约83%，到5月更是跌至97%[1]。
鉴于伊拉克国家预算的85-90%依赖油气出口[1]，这一出口崩溃直接威胁到政府的基本运作。伊拉克政府每月需要65-82亿美元用于薪酬、养老金和社会保障支付[1]，但5月和6月的月收入仅为20-23亿美元[1]，远低于所需。这导致公共部门员工的薪酬出现延迟，8月初引发多次小规模示威[1]。
伊拉克约三分之二的工作年龄人口依靠政府工作[1]，薪酬拖欠对民众生活造成直接冲击。不过伊拉克政府声称拥有830亿美元储备及黄金，可支撑10-11个月的薪酬支出[1]。英国牛津经济公司的报告指出，霍尔木兹海峡的交通至少到2028年可能保持低于正常水平[1]，这意味着伊拉克的财政压力可能长期持续。
Iraq faces a severe fiscal emergency as Iranian actions have crippled the country's primary revenue source. Since February, when the Strait of Hormuz came under blockade following Israeli and American airstrikes on Iran, Iraqi oil and gas exports have collapsed dramatically—declining 83 percent in March and plummeting 97 percent by May compared to the same periods last year.[1] With 85 to 90 percent of the national budget dependent on hydrocarbon revenues, the shortfall has created an acute mismatch between income and obligations.[1]
The government must allocate between $6.5 and $8.2 billion monthly to cover public sector salaries, pensions, and social welfare payments.[1] Yet revenues for May and June fell to merely $2 to $2.3 billion per month, forcing delays in wage disbursements.[1] These payment deferrals have already sparked small-scale protests in early August.[1] Iraq's government has cited reserves of $83 billion and gold holdings that could sustain payroll for 10 to 11 months, according to official claims.[1] However, the long-term outlook appears bleak: Oxford Economics has projected that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may remain below normal levels through at least 2028.[1] Given that approximately two-thirds of Iraq's working-age population—drawn from roughly 30 million people—depends on government employment, the prolonged crisis threatens not only public sector stability but broader social cohesion.[1]