2024年夏季北半球多地经历异常高温。欧洲在6月至7月创造了有记录以来最高的两月温度[1],美国7月打破了1936年7月的纪录,成为有记录以来最高的7月[1]。南韩也刷新了历史最高气温记录[1]。
科学家指出,当前的El Niño事件是推高全球温度的重要因素。根据预测,这次El Niño事件可能达到3.5°C以上,有潜力成为有史以来最强的El Niño事件[1]。气候科学家Zeke Hausfather将其称为"观测记录中最快的启动之一"[1]。联合国秘书长古特雷斯表示,"El Niño条件将为变暖世界的火焰加油"[1]。
由于El Niño对全球温度的影响通常存在数月的滞后效应,科学家预计这一事件将在2027年产生更显著的温度上升影响[1],叠加长期气候变化趋势,可能导致更加严重的热浪现象。
The Northern Hemisphere experienced unprecedented temperatures during the summer of 2024, with Europe setting the highest combined temperatures on record for June and July [1]. The United States recorded its warmest July ever documented, surpassing the previous benchmark set in 1936 [1]. South Korea also reached its highest temperature in recorded history [1].
Scientists attribute this year's extreme heat to a combination of factors, with the current El Niño event playing a significant role. Climate researcher Zeke Hausfather characterized the onset as "one of the fastest starts in the observational record" [1]. According to forecasts, the present El Niño event could potentially exceed 3.5 degrees Celsius, potentially making it the strongest on record [1]. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that "El Niño conditions will add fuel to the flames of a warming world" [1].
Looking ahead, scientists caution that temperatures could deteriorate further. Because El Niño's effects on global temperatures typically lag by several months, the most pronounced impacts are expected to manifest in 2027 [1].