全球能源监察组织的研究显示，2025年全球拟议的新煤矿项目计划将年产煤炭增加25亿吨，较上年增幅11%[1]。印度成为这一增长的主要驱动力，其贾坎德邦和奥迪沙邦的煤矿提案数量大幅上升，该国计划在2025-26财年将煤炭产量增加近1亿吨至11.5亿吨[1]。
与此形成对比的是，全球煤矿启动项目去年出现萎缩，仅为1.13亿吨，较2024年下降40%[1]。中国和澳大利亚的新矿项目分别下降44%和96%[1]。全球能源监察组织研究员蒂芙尼·米恩斯指出："随着低成本清洁能源继续取代煤炭，扩大煤矿的经济理由逐步减弱"[1]。
风能和太阳能去年首次在全球电力混合中超过煤炭，成为全球主要电力来源[1]。
Global energy monitoring organizations have documented a significant expansion in proposed coal mining projects worldwide for 2025, with planned new capacity expected to add 2.5 billion tonnes to annual production—an 11 percent increase from the previous year.[1] India is spearheading this growth, with states such as Jharkhand and Odisha accounting for a substantial portion of the proposed coal mine expansion.[1] The country has set ambitious targets to boost coal output by nearly 100 million tonnes in the 2025-26 financial year, raising total production to 1.15 billion tonnes.[1]
However, the trajectory of actual coal project launches tells a different story. New coal mining projects that began operation last year totaled 113 million tonnes of capacity, representing a sharp 40 percent decline compared to 2024.[1] Major coal producers China and Australia have also stepped back from expansion, with new mine projects dropping 44 percent and 96 percent respectively.[1] Meanwhile, renewable energy sources have marked a historic milestone: wind and solar power surpassed coal as the leading sources of global electricity generation for the first time last year.[1]
Researchers studying this divergence between planned and realized coal expansion point to the fundamental economic challenge facing the sector. A researcher with the Global Energy Monitor stated: "As low-cost clean energy continues to displace coal, the economic case for expanding coal mines is progressively weakening."[1]