由于霍尔木兹海峡被封锁,伊拉克石油出口遭受严重冲击,政府财政陷入困境。伊拉克石油出口中80%至90%通过霍尔木兹海峡运出[1],但3月石油出口相比去年同期下降约83%,5月海运原油出口更是下跌97%[1]。这导致数千名公务员和医疗工作者的薪资出现延迟发放[1]。
伊拉克国家预算的85%至90%依赖石油出口[1]。政府每月需要支出65亿至82亿美元用于薪资、养老金和社会福利,而5月和6月的月收入仅为20亿至23亿美元[1]。伊拉克政府宣称拥有830亿美元储备和黄金资产,足以维持10至11个月的支出[1]。但英国牛津经济研究所预测,霍尔木兹海峡的航运流量至少到2028年才能恢复正常[1]。
伊拉克约30万工作年龄人口中有三分之二依靠政府工作[1]。总政府支出在5月较去年同期下降约四分之一[1]。
Iraq's state workforce is facing unprecedented salary delays as the country's oil revenues have collapsed following Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Persian Gulf chokepoint handles between 80 and 90 percent of Iraq's crude oil exports, making the shipping disruption catastrophic for the government's finances [1]. In March, Iraqi oil exports plummeted approximately 83 percent compared to the previous year, with maritime crude exports declining even more sharply—dropping 97 percent in May [1]. This dramatic revenue loss has left thousands of civil servants and healthcare workers without timely compensation.
Iraq's government expenditure typically ranges from 65 to 82 billion dollars monthly to cover salaries, pensions, and social welfare programs, yet May and June revenues fell to merely 20 to 23 billion dollars [1]. Despite this crisis, Iraqi authorities maintain they possess 83 billion dollars in reserves and gold sufficient to sustain 10 to 11 months of current spending levels [1]. However, experts paint a grimmer picture: Oxford Economics has forecast that shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz will struggle to return to normal operations at least through 2028 [1]. With approximately two-thirds of Iraq's 300,000-strong working-age population dependent on government employment, the prolonged disruption threatens the livelihoods of vast numbers of Iraqis [1]. Government expenditures in May fell roughly one-quarter compared to the same period last year, underscoring the severity of the fiscal squeeze [1].