2001年8月签署的奥赫里德协议结束了北马其顿历时六个月的族群冲突[1]。那场冲突造成72名士兵和警察死亡，阿尔巴尼亚叛乱分子伤亡约100至数百人，超过170,000人流离失所[1]。25年后的今天，虽然武装冲突已然平息，但这个多民族国家的和解进程远未如愿，族群关系反而呈现恶化迹象。
北马其顿人口约180万，其中阿尔巴尼亚族占比超过四分之一[1]。该国2005年成为欧盟候选国，但正式谈判至今未能启动[1]。随着保守党重返执政、阿尔巴尼亚主要政党转入反对派阵营，以及欧盟一体化进程陷入停滞，国家的族群平衡面临新的困境。阿尔巴尼亚族主要政党领导人Ali Ahmeti警告称："对官方使用阿尔巴尼亚语的攻击、平等和充分代表权的废除、防止多数统治的机制的削弱以及推行单一民族国家观念是关于国家发展方向的严重信号"[1]。德国和平建设组织Pro Peace的Harald Schenker指出，"族群距离在增加，教育系统仍然隔离，两个社区相互理解越来越少"[1]。
The Ohrid Agreement, signed in August 2001, formally ended a six-month ethnic conflict in North Macedonia that claimed 72 soldiers and police officers, along with an estimated 100 to several hundred ethnic Albanian insurgents, while displacing over 170,000 people.[1] Yet a quarter-century later, the framework designed to prevent such violence has failed to produce genuine reconciliation between the country's Macedonian majority and its Albanian minority, who comprise just over one-quarter of the nation's approximately 1.8 million population.[1]
The political landscape has shifted in ways that threaten the delicate ethnic balance established by the accord.[1] Ethnic tensions have actually worsened in recent years, with the education system remaining segregated and mutual understanding between communities declining.[1] Harald Schenker, from the German peace-building organization Pro Peace, observed that "ethnic distance is increasing, the education system is still segregated, and the two communities understand each other less and less."[1] These structural divisions persist despite the absence of armed conflict.
Current political developments compound these challenges.[1] The conservative party's return to power, combined with the marginalization of the main Albanian political party into opposition status, alongside stalled European Union integration efforts that have left North Macedonia a candidate country since 2005 without formal accession negotiations beginning, has created new pressures on ethnic stability.[1] Albanian political leader Ali Ahmeti warned that "attacks on the official use of the Albanian language, the abolishment of equality and full representation, the weakening of mechanisms to prevent majoritarian rule, and the promotion of a mono-ethnic state concept are serious signals about the direction of national development."[1]