根据CORRECTIV.Europe的数据分析，欧洲半数城镇和村庄的居民数量已经少于60年前[1]。该研究利用卫星数据和历史人口数据，重新计算了1961至2024年间所有欧盟及相关国家的市镇级人口变化趋势[1]。尽管欧洲总人口仍在增长，预计2029年左右将达到峰值后逐步下降[1]。若不计移民因素，欧盟人口自2012年起已经开始萎缩[1]。
人口下降的根本原因在于生育率持续走低。意大利和西班牙的生育率均约为每个妇女1.3人[1]，远低于人口更新所需水平。面对这一危机，欧洲各国已开始采取应对措施。意大利计划从印度招聘10,000名护理工作者[1]，而法国则计划向所有29岁人群发信鼓励生育[1]。与此同时，欧洲各成员国制定了约300项不同的劳动力移民法规[1]，试图通过移民补充不足的劳动力。城镇人口外流导致的城乡分化日益加剧，农村地区面临服务设施关闭和生活质量下降等压力[1]。
A data analysis by CORRECTIV.Europe reveals that half of Europe's towns and villages have fewer residents today than they did 60 years ago, despite the continent's overall population continuing to grow [1]. The research, which examined population trends across all EU member states and related countries from 1961 to 2024 using satellite data and historical census records, found that the continent faces a demographic turning point [1]. While Europe's total population stands at approximately 4.5 million in 2025, it is expected to peak around 2029 and then begin declining [1].
The demographic pressure is sharpening the rural-urban divide across the region. Excluding immigration, the EU population has been contracting since 2012, with countries like Italy and Spain experiencing particularly low fertility rates of approximately 1.3 children per woman [1]. Some nations are responding with proactive measures: Italy plans to recruit 10,000 care workers from India, while France is launching an initiative to encourage childbearing by sending letters to all 29-year-olds [1]. The challenge of managing labor shortages and population decline is compounded by the fragmented policy landscape, with approximately 300 different labor migration regulations in place across European member states [1].