德国具有移民背景的选民正在远离传统政党。根据柏林德国融合移民研究中心的研究，2023年德国有超过700万名合格选民具有移民背景，约占全部合格选民的12%，相当于总人口的8.3%1。在这一关键选民群体中，社民党保持最强吸引力，三分之二具有移民背景的选民认为社民党是可行选择；相比之下，基督教民主联盟/基督教社会联盟中五分之一的受访者明确拒绝该党1。极右翼党派另类选择党在移民中支持度最低，近三分之二具有移民背景的选民表示投票给该党是不可能的1。
政治形势正在演变。政治学家Özgür Özvatan指出，到2030年，超过一半的德国人口将具有移民背景1。年轻一代对传统政党的支持正在减弱，而另类选择党正在加大争取这一选民群体的力度1。该党曾在2021年柏林联邦选举期间用土耳其语进行竞选宣传，口号为"阿塔图尔克会投票给AfD"1。土耳其社区领导人Martin Gerlach指出，"如果你赢得大量移民背景的选民，你就赢得选举"1。2025年2月举行的联邦选举将成为这一竞争的重要舞台，土耳其社区已在60个德国城市开展投票鼓励工作1。
Voters with immigrant backgrounds are drifting away from Germany's established political parties, presenting both a challenge and an opportunity for competing forces in the country's electoral landscape. According to research from the Berlin Institute for Integration and Migration Studies, more than 7 million qualified voters in Germany—approximately 12 percent of the electorate—have an immigrant background, representing some 8.3 percent of the total population as of 2023.1
The Social Democrats (SPD) currently hold the strongest potential appeal among immigrant voters, with two-thirds of surveyed immigrant-background voters viewing the party as a viable choice.1 However, support for traditional establishment parties is weakening among younger generations with immigrant backgrounds. The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union faces steeper headwinds, with one-fifth of respondents explicitly rejecting the party.1 Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) maintains the lowest support among immigrant voters, with nearly two-thirds stating that voting for the party would be impossible.1 Yet the AfD is actively courting this demographic; the party conducted campaign outreach in Turkish during the 2021 Berlin federal election, using the slogan "Atatürk would vote for AfD."1
Political scientist Özgür Özvatan projects that by 2030, more than half of Germany's population will have an immigrant background, underscoring the strategic importance of this electorate.1 Martin Gerlach, a Turkish community leader, emphasized the stakes: "If you win a large number of voters with an immigrant background, you win the election."1 As Germany prepares for its federal election in February 2025, the Turkish community is mobilizing get-out-the-vote efforts across 60 German cities.1
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