美国政府即将发布7月消费者物价指数报告，该报告对于评估通胀轨迹至关重要[1]。根据预期，7月年率通胀率将为3.4%，环比上升0.1%，较6月的3.5%有所回落[1]。核心通胀预计将冷却至2.5%，较前月的2.6%下降[1]。这份报告将指示通胀是否继续冷却或停滞在高位[1]。
美联储内部对货币政策前景意见不一。7月底会议投票结果为9比3，三名委员主张继续加息[1]。美联储主席凯文·沃什表示，"如果通胀继续居高不下……利率很可能是解决方案的一部分"[1]。投资者对9月是否加息的概率评估目前处于50-50的僵持状态[1]。美联储当前基准利率约为3.6%[1]。
过去五年物价涨幅始终高于美联储2%的目标[1]。7月全国平均油价为每加仑4.01美元，较一个月前上升了13美分[1]。该报告将于周三发布[1]。
The U.S. government is preparing to release its July Consumer Price Index report, which is anticipated to reveal an annual inflation rate of 3.4%, down from 3.5% in June [1]. The closely watched data will signal whether price pressures are continuing to cool or have stalled at elevated levels, with significant implications for both the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and Republicans heading into the midterm elections [1].
The report, set to be released on Wednesday, is expected to show core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—declining to 2.5% from 2.6% the previous month [1]. Month-over-month, the overall consumer price index is projected to rise 0.1% [1]. Notably, the national average gas price stood at $4.01 per gallon in July, up 13 cents from a month earlier [1]. Over the past five years, prices have consistently risen above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1].
Within the Federal Reserve, disagreement persists over the need for further rate increases. At its late July meeting, policymakers voted 9-3 to hold rates steady, with three officials supporting an increase [1]. The current benchmark rate remains around 3.6% [1]. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh stated that "if inflation remains elevated... interest rates are likely to be part of the solution" [1]. Investors are currently assessing the probability of a September rate hike at roughly 50-50 [1].