特朗普的净支持率已跌至-20.4，创其任期内接近历史低位[1]。其中58.5%的受调查者不赞成他的工作表现，仅38.1%表示赞成[1]。这一支持率下滑与伊朗战争问题的争议相关，该问题的反对率达56.7%，支持率仅为37.1%[1]。
在11月3日举行的中期选举中，民主党在民调通用票上明显领先[1]。民主党获得48.4%的支持，而共和党仅获41.8%，领先优势达6.7个百分点[1]。根据预测模型，民主党赢得众议院的概率为86%，赢得参议院的概率为57%[1]。此次中期选举将进行众议院全部435个席位和参议院35个席位的投票[1]。
与此同时，美国经济数据显示疲软迹象[1]。7月就业报告显示减少了2.3万个工作岗位，且5月和6月的数据被向下修正了10.3万[1]。就业人口比例从2025年1月的60.1%下降至58.9%，创2021年9月以来新低[1]。个人储蓄率也降至2.7%，为2022年6月以来的最低水平[1]。
President Trump's approval standing has reached near-record lows ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, with his net approval rating at -20.4[1]. This reflects disapproval from 58.5% of Americans compared to approval from 38.1%[1].
The deteriorating political climate has coincided with economic headwinds facing the nation. July employment data revealed a loss of 23,000 jobs, with revisions to prior months reducing total positions by an additional 103,000[1]. The employment-to-population ratio declined from 60.1% in January 2025 to 58.9% in July, marking the lowest level since September 2021[1]. Personal savings rates also contracted to 2.7%, the lowest figure since June 2022[1].
Democratic candidates have capitalized on these conditions heading into the midterm contests. In generic ballot polling, Democrats lead Republicans 48.4% to 41.8%, a margin of 6.7 percentage points[1]. Analysts project Democrats have an 86% probability of winning control of the House, where all 435 seats are contested, and a 57% probability of retaining Senate control, with 35 seats up for election[1]. Public opposition to military action regarding Iran stands at 56.7%, with only 37.1% in support[1].
