中國AI短劇市場正以驚人速度擴張，卻陷入盈利困局。[1]從2025年8月至2026年7月的一年間，新上線的AI劇數量從655部激增至7萬4313部，增長超過100倍。[1]到2026年7月，平均每36秒就有一部新AI劇上線，佔當月新劇總數的75.4%。[1]AI短劇已主導榜單，約佔日均TOP100排行榜的七成左右。[1]
然而產量的激增並未帶來收入的增長。[1]根據抖音平台上半年的數據，共上線22.19萬部AI劇，其中播放量破億的僅有1055部，佔比0.48%。[1]以5000萬播放量作為盈虧平衡參考線，過線的作品只佔1.3%，換言之大約每77部新劇才有1部達到盈虧平衡。[1]真人短劇創作者受到衝擊，浙江橫店2026年第一季短劇開機量較去年同期下降約75%，排名前列的45名短劇演員今年主演作品數量比去年同期減少近四分之一。[1]
DataEye副總裁林啟文表示，"很多從業者覺得AI降低了製作門檻，卻沒讓創作者更賺錢，反而讓他們虧得更快"。[1]
China's AI-generated short drama market is experiencing explosive growth that far outpaces industry profitability. Between August 2025 and July 2026, the number of new AI dramas launched surged from 655 to 74,313—a more than 100-fold increase—accounting for 75.4 percent of all new productions [1]. By July 2026, a new AI drama premiered on average every 36 seconds [1]. These AI-generated works now dominate the daily top 100 rankings, comprising approximately 70 percent of the most-watched content [1].
The rapid expansion has come at the expense of traditional production methods and employment. Real-world short drama filming in Zhejiang's Hengdian district—a major production hub—saw production starts decline by approximately 75 percent in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period the previous year [1]. Among 45 leading short drama performers, the number of lead roles completed dropped nearly 25 percent year-over-year [1].
Despite the flood of new content, commercial success remains extremely rare. On the Douyin platform, 221,900 AI dramas aired in the first half of 2026, yet only 1,055 of them exceeded 100 million views, representing just 0.48 percent [1]. When using 50 million views as a break-even benchmark, only 1.3 percent of productions crossed that threshold [1]. According to DataEye Vice President Lin Qiwen, "many industry practitioners believed AI lowered production barriers, but it hasn't made creators more profitable—instead, they lose money faster" [1].