进入战争第三年，乌克兰在与美国的外交谈判出现转机前就开始升级军事行动。特朗普在2月与泽连斯基的白宫会晤中直言不讳地表示，"你的国家处于大麻烦之中。你没有在赢……你没有牌可打。"[1]此后不久，乌克兰加大了对俄罗斯领土的打击力度，扭转了华盛顿对这场冲突的战略评估。
乌克兰通过无人机与长程武器取得了显著成果。其无人机摧毁或损坏了价值数百万美元的俄罗斯轰炸机，同时扩展了对油基础设施、防空系统和其他战略目标的打击范围。[1]7月时，乌克兰的长程打击频率相比1月增长了三倍。[1]乌克兰利用埃隆·马斯克的Starlink卫星通信服务控制这些无人机，尽管只有5%-9%的乌克兰发射武器能突破俄罗斯的防空系统。[1]这些攻击的影响已波及俄罗斯的日常生活——6月国际经济论坛开幕前，乌克兰无人机在圣彼得堡上空造成浓烟，俄罗斯因担忧乌克兰打击而缩小了5月9日阅兵的规模。[1]
战争的人员伤亡继续上升。根据联合国报告，2025年上半年有1,396名平民在乌克兰被杀害，而俄罗斯当局报告同期有250名平民丧生。[1]这一系列军事行动最终改变了特朗普对乌克兰能力的看法——到7月北约峰会召开时，他称泽连斯基在战争中"非常有效"。[1]
As the war between Ukraine and Russia entered its third year, the strategic calculus shifted dramatically following a breakdown in diplomatic efforts. After a February White House meeting with President Zelensky deteriorated, during which Trump stated that Ukraine's country was "in big trouble" and that Ukraine did not "have the cards," the country responded by escalating strikes deep into Russian territory [1]. Ukrainian drone attacks destroyed or damaged Russian bombers worth hundreds of millions of dollars, while expanding long-range strikes against oil infrastructure, air defense systems, and other strategic targets [1]. These operations fundamentally altered Washington's assessment of the conflict; by July's NATO summit, Trump characterized Zelensky as "very effective" in the war [1].
Ukraine's intensified campaign demonstrated substantial military capability despite significant challenges. In the first half of 2025, Ukrainian forces launched three times as many long-range strikes in July compared to January [1]. However, the effectiveness of these weapons remained limited, with only 5 to 9 percent of Ukrainian-fired ordnance penetrating Russian air defenses [1]. Ukraine relied on Elon Musk's Starlink satellite communication service to control its drone operations [1]. The strikes reached strategic targets across Russian territory, including drone attacks over Saint Petersburg that produced heavy smoke ahead of an international economic forum opening in June [1]. Meanwhile, Russian authorities reported 250 civilian deaths during the same period [1], while United Nations figures documented 1,396 civilian casualties in Ukraine [1]. Russia's concerns about Ukrainian attacks proved significant enough to prompt authorities to reduce the scale of the May 9 military parade [1].