澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）在8月11日的例行货币政策决议中，宣布将现金利率维持在4.35%不变[1][2]。这一决定反映了央行在通胀压力与经济放缓之间的平衡考量。
RBA行长Michele Bullock表示，"如果必要，委员会将进一步提高利率以及时降低通胀"[2]。同时，RBA声明指出，"如果上行风险实现，包括进一步提高现金利率目标在内，将继续采取必要行动"[2]。金融市场预测12月前再次加息的概率为63%[2]。
当前澳大利亚经济面临多重挑战。失业率维持在4.4%[2]，而RBA预测年度GDP增长将从6月的1.9%下降至12月的1.4%[2]。房地产市场明显走弱，抵押贷款申请自5月联邦预算以来下降20%[2]，RBA已将年底前新房支出增长预测从2%下调至负0.7%[3]，预示房价面临下行压力。
然而，通胀仍需警惕。RBA预测基础通胀在2027年中期前将保持在3%以上，到2028年才会降至2.4%[2]。尽管通胀已从前期高位回落，但仍高于央行2%的目标区间，为央行保留进一步收紧政策的空间。
The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its cash rate at 4.35% on August 11, 2026, holding steady after three consecutive rate increases earlier in the year [1][2]. Despite keeping rates unchanged, RBA Governor Michele Bullock signaled that further increases remain possible if needed, stating that "if necessary, the committee will further raise the cash rate target to bring inflation down in a timely manner" [2].
The decision reflects the central bank's difficult balancing act between persistent inflation concerns and emerging economic weakness. Inflation is forecast to remain above the RBA's 2–3% target band, staying above 3% until mid-2027 before declining to 2.4% by 2028, according to RBA projections [2]. Underlying economic momentum has clearly softened, with annual GDP growth projected to fall from 1.9% in June to 1.4% by December, while the unemployment rate stands at 4.4% [2]. The housing market has weakened considerably, with mortgage applications declining 20% since May's federal budget, and the RBA has downgraded its forecast for new dwelling investment from 2% growth to a contraction of 0.7% by year's end [3].
Financial markets are pricing in a 63% probability of another rate increase before December [2]. However, the RBA's own economic projections suggest limited room for further tightening unless inflation surprises to the upside. Inflation has already come in lower than expected at 3.8%, compared to earlier forecasts of 4.8% to 6%, and house price declines are expected to weigh on household consumption and investment [3]. The RBA stated that "if upside risks are realised, including a further increase in the cash rate target, the board will continue to take the necessary actions" [2].
