澳大利亚ANZ银行近日发布报告警告，澳洲房价将面临显著下跌[1]。该行预计2024年资本城市房价将下跌4.3%，2027年再下跌3.4%，累计跌幅达10.6%[1]。其中，悉尼房价预计从年初高点下跌14.5%，当地房屋中位数现为150万澳元[1]；墨尔本房价预计下跌12.8%，布里斯班下跌7.9%，珀斯下跌5.2%，阿德莱德下跌9.8%[1]。
ANZ高级经济学家Madeline Dunk和Adam Boyton指出，"利率限制、税收政策变化和全球不确定性打击了市场情绪"[1]。市场疲软迹象已现，拍卖成交率已连续10周低于50%[1]。该行预期澳洲央行（RBA）将在2027年下半年降息50个基点，并预测2028年全国房价将反弹4.3%[1]。
Australia's ANZ Bank has released a report forecasting a substantial downturn in residential property values across the country's major markets over the coming years.[1] The bank predicts capital city prices will decline by 4.3 percent in 2024, followed by a further 3.4 percent drop in 2027, bringing cumulative losses to 10.6 percent.[1] Sydney faces the steepest projected fall, with prices expected to slide 14.5 percent from their early-year peak, while Melbourne is forecast to experience a 12.8 percent decline.[1] Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide are anticipated to see drops of 7.9 percent, 5.2 percent, and 9.8 percent respectively.[1]
ANZ's senior economists attributed the downturn to multiple pressures on the market. According to the bank's analysis, interest rate constraints, changes to tax policies, and global uncertainty have dampened buyer sentiment.[1] The weakness in market conditions is evident in auction clearance rates, which have remained below 50 percent for an extended ten-week period.[1] However, the bank anticipates a recovery phase ahead, with the Reserve Bank of Australia expected to cut rates by 50 basis points in the second half of 2027, potentially paving the way for a national property price increase of 4.3 percent in 2028.[1]