印度尼西亚正在积极扩大铝产业规模，计划到2030年将铝产量从约100万吨提升至1450万吨1。这一扩张计划旨在填补全球铝供应缺口，特别是中东铝产量预计今年将从2025年下降44%1。伊朗地缘政治局势的影响推高了铝价，从战前的3150-3250美元/公吨上升至6月的峰值3780美元/公吨，目前交易价格约3400美元/公吨1。
为支撑这一扩产目标，印度尼西亚计划将铝土矿产量提升至3250万公吨1，并依靠专用煤炭电厂驱动铝冶炼生产。中国公司已投资55至60亿美元于该产业，预计到2030年增至300亿美元1。目前共有32个专用煤炭电厂项目正在追踪中，专门为铝冶炼厂供电1。
然而，这一计划与印度尼西亚减少煤炭使用的承诺相悖1，也加剧了全球温室气体排放。铝工业占全球年度温室气体排放约2%，相当于每年11亿吨二氧化碳当量1。更令人担忧的是，若所有印度尼西亚计划项目到2030年投运，该国的铝土矿储备将在不足12年内枯竭1。
Indonesia is undertaking a massive expansion of its aluminum industry, planning to increase production from approximately one million tons to 14.5 million tons by 2030 1. This surge aims to capitalize on supply disruptions in the Middle East caused by regional conflict, which is expected to reduce aluminum output from that region by 44 percent this year 1. The price of aluminum has climbed from a pre-conflict range of $3,150–$3,250 per ton to a June peak of $3,780 per ton, currently trading around $3,400 per ton 1.
The expansion relies heavily on coal-fired power generation, with 32 dedicated coal plants identified as being developed specifically to supply electricity to aluminum smelters 1. Chinese companies have invested between $55 and $60 billion in Indonesia's aluminum sector, with projections indicating investments could reach $300 billion by 2030 1. To support this production growth, Indonesia plans to boost bauxite ore output to 32.5 million tons by 2030 1.
However, this strategy contradicts Indonesia's stated commitment to reduce coal consumption and contributes significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions. The aluminum industry accounts for approximately 2 percent of annual worldwide emissions, equivalent to 1.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent annually 1. At the current expansion pace, Indonesia's bauxite reserves could be depleted in less than 12 years if all planned projects become operational by 2030 1.
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