伊朗正经历严重的经济衰退，中产阶级生活水平急剧恶化。国际货币基金组织预测伊朗经济今年将萎缩5.4%，通货膨胀率接近69%[1][2]。官方数据显示年通胀率达66%，同比通胀接近88%[1]。这场战争作为外部冲击，加剧了伊朗已有的经济危机——经济学家Ahmad Alavi指出，战争前伊朗通胀率已超过40%，同时面临货币贬值、长期预算赤字和多年制裁的困扰[2]。
食品价格上涨幅度尤为惊人，面包和谷物价格上升约140%，肉类和家禽上升135%，乳制品上升116%以上，食用油更是上升200%以上[1][2]。这些价格飙升直接冲击家庭生活。经济学家估计，已有3.5至4.5百万伊朗人因冲突陷入贫困[1][2]，使贫困线以下的总人口超过4000万[1]。许多家庭被迫大幅削减支出，私营企业也面临严重的经济不确定性。同时，霍尔木兹海峡贸易中断，中国已开始通过中亚铁路运输替代海运[2]。
Iran's middle class is experiencing a dramatic deterioration in living standards as war and economic collapse converge to push millions into poverty. The International Monetary Fund projects the Iranian economy will contract by 5.4 percent this year, with inflation expected to reach nearly 69 percent.[1][2] Official data shows an annual inflation rate of 66 percent, with year-on-year inflation approaching 88 percent.[1][2]
The surge in food prices has been particularly severe, with bread and cereals rising approximately 140 percent, meat and poultry up 135 percent, dairy products climbing over 116 percent, and cooking oil increasing more than 200 percent.[1][2] Economists estimate that between 3.5 and 4.5 million Iranians have been driven into poverty due to the conflict, bringing the total population living below the poverty line to over 40 million.[1][2] Ahmad Alavi, an Iranian economist, noted that inflation had already exceeded 40 percent before the war began, with the conflict serving as an external shock that has amplified the existing crisis.[1][2]
The economic deterioration reflects mounting pressures on Iranian households, which have been forced to drastically reduce spending, while private enterprises face mounting uncertainty.[1] The crisis builds upon pre-existing vulnerabilities including a weakened currency, persistent budget deficits, and years of international sanctions.[2]