一篇经济学论文《AI裁员陷阱》指出，当人工智能技术替代劳动力的速度超过经济吸收能力时，会对消费需求造成系统性破坏1。该论文的核心发现揭示了一个市场失灵现象：每家企业获得自动化带来的全部成本节约，但仅承担其造成的部分需求损失，其余冲击转嫁给竞争对手1。这一困境被论文作者与马克思的强制竞争理论和凯恩斯的需求不足理论相联系，论证在竞争压力下，单个企业的理性选择最终会造成集体损害1。
针对这一问题，论文提议采用皮古税作为有效的政策工具1。论文分析表明工资调整、自由进入市场、资本所得税、工人股权、全民基本收入、技能提升或科斯式谈判等措施均无法消除此问题1。论文作者主张需要进行公开辩论和深思熟虑，以找到既不"砸碎机器"也不"放任自流"的应对AI技术的平衡方案1。
A new economics paper titled "The AI Layoff Trap" presents an analysis of how artificial intelligence-driven automation creates systemic economic damage despite appearing rational at the firm level 1. The research identifies a core mechanism: each company captures the full cost savings from automation but bears only a fraction of the resulting demand loss in the product market, with the remainder falling on competitors 1. This dynamic creates what economists term a demand externality, linking contemporary automation challenges to classical economic theories about competitive pressures and insufficient demand 1.
The paper proposes a Pigouvian automation tax as an effective policy tool to address this market failure 1. Notably, the researchers argue that several alternative approaches cannot solve the problem, including wage adjustments, free market entry, capital gains taxes, worker equity ownership, universal basic income, skills training, and Coasian negotiation 1. The underlying tension reflects what the analysis frames as a competition trap: while individual firms act rationally under market pressure, their collective actions generate systemic harm. The authors conclude that resolving this challenge requires public debate and deliberate consideration of how to deploy A.I. technology—steering between both machine-breaking rejection and laissez-faire acceptance 1.
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