卡尔顿和吉龙队将在周五晚间进行澳式足球联赛淘汰赛。1卡尔顿在过去五个常规赛交手中赢得四场，建立了对对手的压倒性优势。1这场比赛成为历史上第一次联赛排名第五的球队对阵第十名球队的淘汰赛。1
卡尔顿的优势源于球队在关键位置上的主导力量。1参加卡尔顿击败墨尔本比赛的23名球员中，有九人从未在穿着卡尔顿球衣时输给吉龙队。1与此形成对比，吉龙队有五名球员在穿着球队球衣的职业生涯中从未战胜过卡尔顿。1卡尔顿在过去10场比赛中控球率达到47%，比任何其他球队高出三个百分点。1在最近一次交手中，卡尔顿从中场争球获得四个进球，其中三个在第三节四分钟内完成。1
这是两队自1995年卡尔顿赢得大决赛以来首次在决赛中交手。1自1995年以来，吉龙队在39场常规赛中赢得26场、负13场。1帕特里克·克里普斯在之前三次对阵吉龙的比赛中都获得全场最佳，共获得七张布朗洛奖投票。1哈里·麦凯在2025年对阵吉龙的比赛中表现最佳。1
Carlton and Geelong are set to clash in an AFL elimination final on Friday night, with the Blues holding a commanding recent record against their opponents 1. Carlton have won four of their past five regular season meetings against Geelong, a streak that reflects their tactical advantages in possession and ground play 1. Nine of the 23 players who featured in Carlton's most recent victory over Melbourne have never tasted defeat to Geelong in a Carlton jumper, while five Geelong players have conversely never won against Carlton while wearing the red and white 1.
Carlton's ball-retention capability has proven particularly troublesome for Geelong's defense. The Blues have maintained possession 47 percent of the time over their past 10 games, three percentage points higher than any other team in the competition 1. In their most recent head-to-head encounter, Carlton's dominance from centre clearance was decisive, with the team kicking four goals to one from that source, including three majors in a four-minute burst during the third quarter 1. Patrick Cripps was named best on ground in his previous three meetings against Geelong and polled seven Brownlow votes, while Harry McKay earned the same honor in Carlton's 2025 clash against the Cats 1.
This Friday's match marks a historic encounter: it is the first time a fifth-placed team will face a tenth-placed team in a final, and the first finals meeting between the two clubs since Carlton's 1995 grand final victory over Geelong 1. Since that premiership, Geelong have won 26 matches against Carlton while losing 13 of the 39 games played between them 1.
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