2026年8月24日，西北太平洋同时出现第18号台风"沙德尔"、第19号台风"紫檀"、第20号台风"简拉维"、第21号台风"艾莎尼"四个台风，构成罕见的"四台风共舞"局面1。其中第19号台风"紫檀"虽然风力等级不高，但因移动缓慢、在北部湾持续盘踞超过4天而造成严重影响1。从8月21日开始，"紫檀"携带充足水汽为广西西部地区带来持续降雨1，导致明江及其支流等10条河流15个站点水位超过警戒线1。截至8月23日，这场洪灾已造成6.1万人受灾，5.4万人被紧急转移1。
气象专家指出，弱台风预报的难度在于其容易被低估1。中国气象服务协会会长许小峰表示，"弱台风常常容易被低估，对预报员的业务判断提出更高要求"1。地处桂西南山区的宁明县沿河村镇众多，明江干流穿城而过1。随着"简拉维"于8月24日20时停止编号、"艾莎尼"于8月25日早晨5时停止编号，"紫檀"最终于8月26日14时停止编号1。
In August 2026, the northwestern Pacific witnessed an exceptionally rare phenomenon when four typhoons formed simultaneously.1 Among them, Typhoon Zitan (the 19th typhoon of the season) demonstrated how even relatively weak tropical cyclones can pose significant forecasting challenges and cause widespread disaster.1
Typhoon Zitan's slow movement and prolonged positioning over the Beibu Gulf for more than four days, combined with abundant moisture content, unleashed sustained torrential rainfall across western Guangxi starting on August 21.1 By August 23 at 6 p.m., fifteen monitoring stations across ten rivers had exceeded alert levels, with the typhoon leaving 61,000 people affected and forcing the relocation of 54,000 residents.1 The mountainous southwestern geography of Ningming County, with numerous riverside villages and the Mingjiang River flowing directly through urban areas, amplified the flooding's impact.1
The other three typhoons—Shader (the 18th), Sinlaku (the 20th), and Isaias (the 21st)—formed the broader four-typhoon configuration as of August 24.1 Sinlaku ceased operations on August 24 at 8 p.m., Isaias on August 25 at 5 a.m., and Zitan on August 26 at 2 p.m.1
Meteorological experts attributed the forecasting difficulty to inherent biases in how weak typhoons are assessed. Xu Xiaofeng, chair of the China Meteorological Service Association, stated that "weak typhoons are often underestimated, placing higher demands on forecasters' professional judgment."1
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