澳大利亚储备银行行长Michele Bullock及董事会将于本周一至周二召开会议，经济学家普遍预期现金利率将维持在4.35%不变[1]。这一预期反映出通胀形势的改善，6月数据显示总体通胀率从4%降至3.8%，为伊朗战争开始以来的最低水平[1]；央行首选的剔除极值平均通胀率保持在3.6%[1]。尽管通胀仍高于央行2-3%的目标区间，但NAB高级经济学家Taylor Nugent指出"央行需要进一步加息的推动力，但自5月以来的数据流并未提供这样的推动"[1]。
经济学家普遍认为央行短期内不会进一步加息。HSBC首席经济学家Paul Bloxham预计央行将从2027年下半年开始降息[1]。不过，如果通胀下降不够快，加息可能性仍未完全消除——Bloxham指出"如果通胀下降不够快，央行仍可能在2026年晚些时候加息"[1]。剔除极值平均通胀率已经高于央行目标中点超过4年[1]，显示通胀粘性仍然存在。
Australia's Reserve Bank board, led by Governor Michele Bullock, will convene Monday through Tuesday to decide on monetary policy, with economists widely forecasting the cash rate will remain unchanged at 4.35 percent.[1]
The decision reflects a significant shift in inflation dynamics. June data revealed headline inflation declined to 3.8 percent from 4 percent, marking the lowest level since the onset of the Iran conflict, while the Reserve Bank's preferred trimmed mean inflation measure held steady at 3.6 percent.[1] Despite these improvements, both measures remain above the central bank's 2-3 percent target band.[1]
Economists have signaled limited appetite for further rate increases in the near term. NAB's senior economist Taylor Nugent noted that "the Reserve Bank needs a compelling reason to raise rates further, but the data flow since May has not provided that."[1] However, the possibility of future tightening has not been ruled out entirely. HSBC's chief economist Paul Bloxham cautioned that "if inflation doesn't fall quickly enough, the Reserve Bank could still raise rates later in 2026," while predicting rate cuts may begin in the second half of 2027.[1] The trimmed mean measure has remained above the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's target range for more than four years.[1]