四位经济学家在《经济研究评论》发表论文，通过历史数据分析揭示了新中国工业化初期苏联援助的复杂遗产。[1]这项研究聚焦上世纪50年代的156个苏联援建工业项目，这些项目曾是中国工业化的关键基础。[1]研究表明，虽然这些援建项目为新中国奠定了工业基础，但它们也可能形成"繁荣陷阱"，最终导致老工业基地衰落。[1]
这156个援建项目规模宏大，涉及8万名中国留学生赴苏深造，以及两万多名苏联专家来华指导。[1]其中149座大型工厂落地全国98个县城，覆盖钢铁、煤炭、机械、军工、电力等全产业门类。[1]论文作者斯蒂芬·赫布利希、马龙·塞罗尔、徐浩和雅诺斯·齐尔伯贝格通过这一历史案例，探讨了工业援助对地方经济长期发展的深层影响。[1]
Four economists have published research examining how Soviet industrial assistance to China during the 1950s produced both foundational gains and lasting economic challenges for recipient regions. The paper, appearing in the Economic Research Review in 2026, analyzes 149 large-scale factories established across 98 counties nationwide as part of the Soviet Union's 156-project initiative.[1]
The 156 projects represented a comprehensive industrial transfer that included massive investments in steel, coal, machinery, military production, and power generation.[1] The undertaking was accompanied by the training of approximately 80,000 Chinese students in the Soviet Union and the deployment of over 20,000 Soviet experts to China.[1] These interventions were instrumental in initiating China's industrial development from scratch, establishing what the authors—Stephen Héblich, Marlon Seror, Xu Hao, and János Zilberberg—characterize as the foundation of China's modern industrial base.[1]
However, the research identifies a significant long-term consequence: the concentration of industrial capacity in specific locations created what the economists term a "prosperity trap," ultimately contributing to the decline of aging industrial centers over subsequent decades.[1] The findings suggest that while the immediate economic stimulus was substantial, the structural dependencies and regional imbalances created by the aid programs carried unforeseen costs that shaped China's economic geography well into the future.[1]
