维多利亚州正面临日益加剧的气候变化威胁，但政府的适应措施投入远未匹配风险规模。[1]该州2025-26预算中用于气候适应的资金仅为2.64亿澳元，相比之下用于减排的经费却达20亿澳元。[1]根据联合国气候变化委员会预测，海平面将上升1.1米，但维多利亚州的洪水规划仍基于过时的82厘米基准。[1]州海岸线到2100年将面临3370亿澳元的损害风险。[1]
现实中的洪灾案例已经暴露出规划系统的漏洞。2022年大洪水中，Mooroopna的房屋被淹至1米深并混入污水，排水泵故障导致积水停留两周。[1]Greater Shepparton在同年三条河流同时泛滥后，80栋房屋遭部分或完全摧毁；澳大利亚降雨和径流报告预测该市到2090年降雨强度将增加11%。[1]尽管面临这些风险，Echuca一个16套联排别墅开发项目在2022年洪水仅5个月后就获得批准，尽管水管理当局曾警告该项目"可能导致生命、健康和安全危险"。[1]
保险危机进一步加剧了脆弱性。Greater Shepparton市政厅估计，到2030年四分之一的区域物业将因气候风险而无法投保。[1]Port Phillip地区2024年沿海灾害评估显示，海平面上升1.1米时，该地政府管辖区四分之一的土地将处于淹没范围内。[1]保险理事会建议州和联邦政府设立300亿澳元的10年洪水防御基金。[1]
Victoria faces mounting climate risks including intensified weather, sea level rise, flooding, bushfires, and drought, yet government adaptation efforts remain critically underfunded and poorly executed.[1] The state allocated just AUD 264 million for climate adaptation in its 2025-26 budget, far below the AUD 2 billion dedicated to emissions reduction.[1]
Coastal and riverine communities face immediate peril. A 2024 coastal disaster assessment for the Port Phillip region found that when sea levels rise by 1.1 meters—a realistic projection according to the UN's climate change panel—approximately one-quarter of the government's jurisdictional land will fall within the inundation zone.[1] Victoria's coastline faces AUD 337 billion in damage risk by 2100.[1] Yet the state's flood planning still relies on an outdated 82-centimeter sea level rise benchmark rather than the now-expected 1.1 meters.[1] In Greater Shepparton, officials predict that by 2030, one-quarter of the region's properties will become uninsurable due to climate risk, while rainfall intensity in the area is projected to increase by 11 percent by 2090.[1]
The human cost of inadequate preparation became evident in 2022, when Mooroopna saw homes submerged one meter deep in mixed sewage after drainage pumps failed, leaving water stranded for two weeks.[1] That same year, Greater Shepparton experienced simultaneous flooding across three rivers, destroying 80 homes partially or completely.[1] Nevertheless, planning approvals continue to prioritize development over climate resilience: an Echuca townhouse project comprising 16 units received approval just five months after the 2022 floods, despite water management authorities warning it "could result in dangers to life, health and safety."[1] The Insurance Council has recommended that state and federal governments establish a AUD 30 billion ten-year flood defense fund.[1]