国际法能否遏制日益高涨的全球核武威胁

全球核武威胁正处于历史高位。九个核武装国家共拥有超过12200枚核弹头，其总破坏力相当于145000枚广岛炸弹1。其中约9000枚核武处于军事活跃或部署状态1，美俄两国的2000枚武器更是处于高度戒备，发射决策窗口仅为4至8分钟1。美俄两国合计掌握全球90%的核储备1。

核武器库存的扩张在加速。中国核武库在短年间翻倍增至近600枚1，而包括美俄在内的所有核武装国家都在进行武器现代化或增加库存1。与此同时，关键的军备控制框架正在瓦解——《新START》条约将于2026年2月失效，这意味着美俄在50多年来首次面临无任何核力量限制的局面1。

国际法在应对这一危机中扮演重要角色。1996年国际法院的咨询意见认定，核武器的威胁或使用通常违反国际法1。然而，这一法律基础正在受到挑战。特朗普在2026年1月接受《纽约时报》采访时表示，他不需要国际法的约束，仅受个人道德指导1。

Nine nuclear-armed nations possess more than 12,200 nuclear warheads combined, with a destructive capacity equivalent to approximately 145,000 Hiroshima bombs.1 Roughly 9,000 of these weapons remain in military active or deployed status.1 The United States and Russia maintain approximately 2,000 weapons on high alert, with launch decision windows of only 4 to 8 minutes.1 This escalating threat comes as all nuclear-armed states are modernizing or expanding their arsenals, while critical arms control agreements have expired or face imminent collapse.

China's nuclear arsenal has doubled in recent years to nearly 600 warheads, underscoring the global trend toward weapons expansion.1 The US and Russia collectively control roughly 90 percent of the world's nuclear stockpile.1 The deteriorating state of international agreements compounds these concerns: the New START treaty is set to expire in February 2026, leaving the US and Russia without any nuclear force limitations for the first time in more than 50 years.1

International law has historically provided a framework for nuclear restraint. In 1996, the International Court of Justice issued an advisory opinion concluding that the threat or use of nuclear weapons is generally contrary to international law.1 However, this legal foundation faces new challenges. In a January 2026 interview with the New York Times, Trump stated he did not require international law, saying he was constrained only by personal moral considerations.1 As the global nuclear landscape becomes increasingly unstable, the enforceability and relevance of international legal mechanisms remain critical to preventing catastrophic conflict.