美联储主席Warsh重申通胀目标 市场预期利率上升

美联储主席凯文·沃什在怀俄明州Jackson Hole年会上的演讲引发市场对货币政策方向的重新评估1。沃什重申美联储对2%通胀目标的坚定承诺，指出当前个人消费支出（PCE）通胀率在12个月基础上为3.7%，6个月基础上为4.1%，仍明显高于目标水平1。他在演讲中表示："我们必须确信潜在通胀正在朝着我们的目标明确而充分快速地移动。否则，我们还有工作要做。"1

沃什的表态立即在市场引起反响1。9月15-16日联邦基金利率上升的市场预期从不足50%跳升至超过60%1。与此同时，美国政府债券收益率大幅上升，两年期美债收益率从3.38%升至4.35%，10年期从3.94%升至4.72%，30年期从4.61%升至5.21%1。财政部长斯科特·贝森特随后宣布将购买40亿美元或更多的较长期限美国政府债券1。沃什还指出前瞻指引是"过去危机的遗留"，应在正常时期限制1。

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to its 2% inflation target during a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming on August 23, 2024, emphasizing that current price pressures remain elevated above the Fed's goal 1. With the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation rate holding at 3.7% on a twelve-month basis and 4.1% over six months, Warsh stressed that the Fed must ensure underlying inflation is moving "clearly and sufficiently quickly" toward its target, cautioning that "we have more work to do" if momentum stalls 1.

Warsh's remarks immediately shifted market expectations, with the probability of a federal funds rate increase on September 15-16 jumping from below 50% to above 60% following his speech 1. The broader policy environment reflects mounting fiscal pressures: the U.S. government deficit approaches $2 trillion, representing approximately 5.9% of GDP, while total government debt has exceeded $40 trillion, a substantial increase from the $36.1 trillion level when Trump took office 1. Annual interest costs on federal debt now exceed $1.2 trillion, straining the government's fiscal position 1. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to purchase $4 billion or more in longer-dated U.S. government debt securities 1, as bond markets responded with significant yield increases—two-year yields rising from 3.38% to 4.35%, ten-year yields from 3.94% to 4.72%, and thirty-year yields from 4.61% to 5.21% 1. Warsh also indicated that forward guidance, described as a "relic of past crises," should be limited during normal economic periods 1.