谷歌DeepMind与Google Research联合开发的AI气象预报模型WeatherNext在飓风预测领域实现了显著突破。[1][2]该模型的三天预报准确度相当于现有模型的两天预报水平，预测精度提前了一天。[1][2]相关研究已发表于《自然》杂志。[2]
在2025年10月的实际应用中，WeatherNext模型在飓风梅丽莎登陆前五天以80%的置信度准确预测其将以五级飓风级别登陆牙买加。[2]这一预测帮助美国国家飓风中心预测了飓风梅丽莎的快速增强过程。[1]
DeepMind已将WeatherNext 2和WeatherNext Cyclones两个模型开源，供全球研究社区和气象部门使用。[1]其中，WeatherNext Cyclones在预测气旋轨迹、强度和风速结构方面达到最先进水平，仅需28×28千米分辨率数据，比传统模型所需分辨率粗糙约100倍。[1]该模型在TPU上可在一分钟内生成15天预报，并支持1000个集合成员预测。[1]
模型的训练数据包括近20TB的全球大气数据和涵盖近5000场历史风暴的IBTrACS数据库。[1]合作机构包括Google DeepMind、Google Research、美国国家飓风中心和英国气象局等。[1]
Google DeepMind has unveiled WeatherNext, an artificial intelligence weather prediction model that represents a significant advancement in hurricane forecasting capabilities.[1][2] Research published in Nature demonstrates that the model achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting cyclone trajectories, intensity, and wind speed structures.[1] The three-day forecast accuracy of WeatherNext matches the two-day forecast precision of existing models, effectively advancing prediction accuracy by one full day—equivalent to a decade of meteorological progress.[1][2]
The model was developed collaboratively by Google DeepMind and Google Research, working alongside the U.S. National Hurricane Center and the UK Met Office.[1] WeatherNext was trained on nearly 20 terabytes of global atmospheric data and the IBTrACS database, which encompasses nearly 5,000 historical storm records.[1] Despite its advanced capabilities, the model requires only 28×28 kilometer resolution data—roughly 100 times coarser than traditional forecasting models—and can generate 15-day forecasts on TPU hardware in under one minute, supporting up to 1,000 ensemble member predictions.[1] DeepMind has already open-sourced both WeatherNext 2 and WeatherNext Cyclones models for use by the global research community and meteorological agencies.[1]
The model's practical effectiveness was demonstrated during the 2025 hurricane season.[2] Five days before landfall, WeatherNext predicted with 80 percent confidence that Hurricane Melissa would make landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane.[2] The forecast proved accurate, enabling communities to better prepare for the disaster.[2]