自2月28日美国与以色列对伊朗发动战争以来，特朗普已在过去五个月内采取同样战术约七次，形成了先发出摧毁性轰炸威胁、随后又在最后关头退缩的重复模式[1]。4月时，特朗普曾威胁伊朗"文明将在今晚死亡"，但随即同意停火[1]。尽管6月达成了停火协议，但该协议后来因双方对《凡尔赛宫协议备忘录》的理解存在分歧而崩溃[1]。
特朗普多次声称已取得胜利并称有交易在即，但实际谈判未见成果[1]。上月北约峰会在安卡拉召开时，他曾将伊朗领导人称为"人渣"[1]。分析人士指出，特朗普对伊朗领导层的心理和体制缺乏理解，导致战略方向摇摆不定，威胁战术频繁失效[1]。CNN汇编了自3月以来特朗普的14段单独视频片段，其中他声称伊朗领导人"想要达成交易"[1]。伊朗最近对约旦美军基地的袭击造成三名美国军事人员死亡[1]，美国中东战略石油供应通道霍尔木兹海峡仍保持关闭状态[1]。
Since the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28, President Trump has repeatedly cycled through a pattern of issuing devastating threats followed by last-minute reversals [1]. Over the past five months, Trump has employed the same tactical approach approximately seven times, each instance underscoring a broader pattern of strategic inconsistency [1].
In April, Trump threatened that Iranian civilization would "die tonight," only to reverse course at the final moment and agree to a ceasefire [1]. A ceasefire agreement reached in June subsequently collapsed due to differing interpretations of the Versailles Accord memorandum [1]. During a NATO summit in Ankara last month, Trump characterized Iranian leadership as "scumbags" [1]. Throughout this period, the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for Middle Eastern energy supplies, has remained closed [1]. CNN compiled fourteen separate video clips from Trump since March in which he claimed Iranian leaders "want to make a deal," yet substantive negotiations have not materialized [1].
Analysts attribute the recurring pattern to Trump's apparent misunderstanding of Iranian leadership psychology and institutional structures, resulting in frequently ineffective threat tactics and wavering strategic direction [1]. The situation was further complicated when Iran recently attacked a U.S. military base in Jordan, resulting in three American military personnel deaths [1].