伊朗领导人认为，通过控制霍尔木兹海峡的军事压力可以迫使美国接受伊朗对这一全球能源运输枢纽的控制。[1] 伊朗正与阿曼谈判达成协议以管理海峡，该协议将以美国解除对伊朗的封锁为条件。[1] 伊朗称霍尔木兹海峡是"不可撤销的红线"，将继续攻击未获许可通过的船只。[1] 鉴于全球贸易油气的五分之一经过该海峡，[1] 这一战略意在对全球能源市场施加杠杆。
伊朗相信经济压力和国内政治考量将促使特朗普政府做出让步，认为时间站在自己一方。[1] 然而，伊朗本身正面临严峻的经济挑战。12月发生货币危机，引发伊朗伊斯兰共和国47年历史上最大规模抗议。[1] 同时，伊朗经历三位数的食品通胀。[1] 此外，2月28日美以空袭杀死了伊朗最高领导人和其他高官。[1] 这些国内困境和战略损失使伊朗长期坚持对峙政策面临风险。
Iran's leadership is pursuing a strategy to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz through military pressure, with the goal of compelling the United States to lift sanctions in exchange for safe passage through the critical waterway [1]. The Iranian government has characterized the strait as an "irrevocable red line" and vowed to continue attacking vessels that transit without permission [1]. Approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz [1].
Iranian officials are negotiating an agreement with Oman to manage the strait, contingent on the United States lifting its economic embargo against Iran [1]. Tehran's leadership believes time favors their position, predicting that economic pressure and domestic political considerations will force the Trump administration to concede [1]. However, this approach carries significant risks, as Iran faces the potential for economic collapse and intensifying domestic unrest [1]. The country experienced a currency crisis in December and three-digit food inflation, while February 28 airstrikes killed Iran's supreme leader and other senior officials [1]. The currency crisis and economic turmoil have sparked the largest-scale protests in the Islamic Republic's 47-year history [1].