美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔经济会议上周五的演讲中为未来数月的潜在加息打开了大门，但同时回避了具体承诺1。沃什表示需要看到"新信息"来决定7月28-29日会议后是否调整利率政策，其中包括将在9月中旬会议召开前几天发布的政府价格报告1。
沃什指出当前通胀形势依然严峻，"并未有意义地改善"，尽管油价略有下降1。他提出数据称，超过一半被追踪的商品和服务价格同比上升幅度达到3%或以上，这一比例远高于疫情前二十年间约三分之一的水平1。不过，沃什也强调人工智能有潜力通过提升经济效率来减轻加息压力1。
沃什在9月加息的政治压力中发表此番言论。彼得森国际经济研究所主席亚当·波森指出，"如果9月不加息，人们可能会质疑发生了什么"1。9月是中期选举前仅有的两次美联储会议之一，任何加息决定可能引发前总统特朗普的政治反应——他曾指控美联储2024年9月0.5个百分点的降息是为帮助民主党1。
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled openness to raising interest rates in September while stopping short of committing to such action during remarks at the Jackson Hole economic conference on Friday.1 Warsh emphasized the need for new inflation data before the Federal Open Market Committee's mid-September meeting to determine whether rate adjustments should follow the July 28-29 decision.1
The central bank chief acknowledged that inflation "has not meaningfully improved" despite some moderation in oil prices.1 More than half of tracked goods and services have seen annual price increases of 3 percent or higher, a proportion that contrasts sharply with the pre-pandemic two-decade average of roughly one-third.1 A government price report is scheduled to be released several days before the September meeting, providing crucial data for the rate decision.1
The timing carries political weight, as September represents one of only two Federal Open Market Committee meetings before the midterm elections, making any rate increase potentially subject to criticism from political figures.1 Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, noted that failure to raise rates in September could prompt questions about what prompted the shift in policy.1 Former President Trump has previously accused the Federal Reserve of engineering a 0.5 percentage point rate cut in September 2024 to benefit Democrats.1
Warsh also highlighted artificial intelligence as a potential tool for enhancing economic efficiency, suggesting it could help reduce inflationary pressures and potentially lower the urgency for rate increases.1
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