美国人口统计局预测，到2029年左右，美国65岁及以上的老年人口数量将首次超过18岁以下的儿童数量[1]。这一转折标志着美国人口结构的历史性变化。
根据2024年数据，美国65岁及以上人口为6,120万人，占全国总人口的18.0%，而18岁以下儿童为7,310万人，占21.5%[1]。两个群体之间的差距正在缩小——在过去四年中，这一差距从2020年的约1,700万人降至2024年的约1,200万人[1]。从长期趋势看，65岁及以上人口从1950年的1,230万增至2024年的6,120万，增幅约为5倍，而同一时期儿童数量基本保持在7,300万左右[1]。
这一人口变化已在部分地区提前出现。截至2024年，已有11个州和近半数美国县的老年人口已经超过儿童数量[1]。美国人口统计局还预计，到2060年，工作年龄人口（18-64岁）与老年人口的比例将从当前的3.4:1下降至2.4:1[1]。此前2017年的预测曾将这一交叉点定在2034年，但2023年的预测已将其提前至2029年[1]。
The United States is approaching a historic demographic milestone. According to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2023 mid-range projection, Americans aged 65 and older will outnumber those under 18 for the first time around 2029 [1]. This population inversion marks a fundamental shift in the nation's age structure, reversing decades of demographic patterns.
Currently, the gap between these two age groups is narrowing rapidly. As of 2024, there are approximately 61.2 million people aged 65 and over, representing 18.0% of the population, compared with 73.1 million children under 18, who account for 21.5% [1]. The margin between these groups has contracted from about 17 million in 2020 to roughly 12 million in 2024 [1]. The elderly population has grown dramatically over the past seven decades, expanding from 12.3 million in 1950 to 61.2 million today—a roughly fivefold increase—while the number of children has remained relatively stable at around 73 million [1].
This demographic transition is already occurring in parts of the country. As of 2024, eleven states and nearly half of all U.S. counties have already reached the point where the population aged 65 and older exceeds the child population [1]. Looking further ahead, the Census Bureau projects that by 2060, the ratio of working-age adults aged 18 to 64 to seniors will decline from the current 3.4-to-1 to 2.4-to-1 [1].