伦敦政治经济学院的David Hope和Julian Limberg发表研究论文,分析了18个发达国家过去50年来富人减税的经济效应[1]。研究结论推翻了"涓滴经济学"理论,表明富人减税使富人更加富有,但对失业率和经济增长没有实质影响[1]。该论文发布后获得广泛全球关注,下载量约150,000次,成为伦敦政经学院研究库历史下载量最高的论文[1]。
研究引发了对税收政策效果的重新审视。2017年,美国总统Donald Trump推行《减税与就业法案》时曾宣称这将是"美国经济的火箭燃料"[1]。经济学家Thomas Piketty则提出,向富人减税会导致他们更积极地争取补偿,从而削弱工人收入[1]。值得注意的是,一项针对美国民众的调查发现,当向普通民众提供富人税收下降的具体信息后,他们变得不太支持富人减税,这一效应在共和党选民中尤为强烈[1]。
Researchers at the London School of Economics have challenged the economic theory that tax cuts for high earners stimulate broad-based prosperity. David Hope and Julian Limberg published a research paper analyzing tax reduction policies across 18 developed nations over a 50-year period, concluding that such cuts make wealthy individuals wealthier while having no substantial impact on unemployment rates or overall economic growth [1]. The paper became the most downloaded publication in the LSE research repository, attracting approximately 150,000 downloads and drawing significant global attention [1].
The study's findings directly counter arguments made by proponents of tax cuts for the wealthy. When former President Donald Trump implemented the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017, he characterized the legislation as "rocket fuel for the American economy" [1]. However, the LSE research suggests that the promised economic benefits did not materialize. Economist Thomas Piketty has argued that reducing taxes on the wealthy incentivizes them to pursue more aggressive compensation strategies, which in turn weakens workers' earnings [1].
Public perception of wealth-focused tax policy appears to shift when voters receive information about the actual effects of such cuts. A survey found that when ordinary Americans were presented with data demonstrating that wealthy individuals benefited from tax reductions while broader economic gains failed to materialize, support for such policies declined, with the effect particularly pronounced among Republican voters [1].