美国劳动力市场出现意外转折。[1]7月就业岗位减少23,000个，与经济学家预期的增加83,000个岗位形成鲜明对比。[1]尽管就业数据疲软，失业率反而小幅下降至4.1%，但劳动力参与率跌至2021年2月以来的最低水平，显示劳动力市场深层动能不足。[1]此外，前两个月数据遭到向下修正，其中5月下调66,000个岗位，6月下调37,000个岗位，合计修正幅度达103,000个。[1]
就业质量也呈现下滑迹象。[1]时薪增长从上年同期预期的3.5%放缓至3.2%，低于3.5%的通胀率，意味着实际工资增长陷入负值。[1]分行业来看，本地政府教育部门下降50,000个岗位，零售业下降19,000个，金融业下降14,000个，休闲和酒店业更是下降40,000个，仅医疗保健部门增加22,000个。[1]
这份疲弱的就业报告对货币政策预期产生影响。[1]美联储9月加息概率从50%降至约40%。[1]市场对数据做出积极反应，标普500期货上涨0.5%，纳斯达克100期货上涨1%。[1]
The U.S. labor market contracted unexpectedly in July, with employers shedding 23,000 jobs instead of adding the 83,000 positions economists had anticipated [1]. The loss marked a sharp reversal in hiring trends and reflected broad weakness across multiple sectors. Local government education departments accounted for 50,000 of the job cuts, while retail shed 19,000 positions, financial services fell by 14,000, and leisure and hospitality dropped 40,000 jobs [1]. Healthcare remained a bright spot, gaining 22,000 positions [1].
Despite the job losses, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% [1], though this decline was accompanied by concerning labor market dynamics. The labor force participation rate fell to its lowest level since February 2021 [1], suggesting workers may be exiting the job market entirely. Additionally, data from the prior two months were revised downward by a combined 103,000 jobs—with May losing 66,000 positions and June losing 37,000—painting a darker picture of recent employment trends [1].
Wage growth also decelerated, with hourly earnings expanding at an annual rate of 3.2%, down from the previously expected 3.5% and now trailing the 3.5% inflation rate [1]. The softer employment picture reshaped expectations for Federal Reserve policy, as the probability of a rate increase in September fell from 50% to approximately 40% [1]. Stock futures responded positively to the weaker data, with S&P 500 futures rising 0.5% and Nasdaq-100 futures climbing 1% [1].