美国威胁实施二级制裁，伊朗竭力维持贸易网络

美国特朗普政府正试图通过威胁实施二级制裁，迫使其他国家切断与伊朗的金融和贸易往来，以进一步孤立伊朗经济 1。作为美方最新施压行动的开端，阿联酋于上周宣布暂停与伊朗的贸易关系 1。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）周一概述了一项名为“经济弃儿行动”（Operation Economic Outcast）的计划，并明确警告：“与美国站在一起的国家将收获我们合作的回报，而那些将自己与伊朗政权捆绑在一起的国家则应准备好承受被孤立的后果。” 1

伊朗经济目前正面临更大的不稳定性，此前已因高通胀、西方制裁以及战争导致石油收入锐减而承受重压 1。数据显示，伊朗2024年的全球商品贸易总额为1250亿美元 1。在其贸易网络中，阿联酋、中国和土耳其提供了伊朗近四分之三的商品进口，而中国、伊拉克、阿联酋和土耳其则占据了伊朗非石油出口的三分之二以上 1。作为伊朗最大的贸易伙伴和主要石油买家，中国的态度将成为美国这一策略成败的关键 1。与此同时，土耳其7月就一家国有银行协助伊朗规避制裁的多年争议与美国达成和解 1。在俄罗斯方面，尽管俄罗斯今年向伊朗发送无人机，但两国正通过阿斯特拉罕等里海港口重新路由出口，且农业产品占两国报告贸易的80% 1。

The Trump administration is threatening secondary sanctions to force other nations to sever financial and trade ties with Iran, aiming to further isolate its economy 1. Marking the latest move in this pressure campaign, the United Arab Emirates announced a suspension of its trade relations with Iran last week 1. On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outlined a strategy named "Operation Economic Outcast," warning, "Those who stand with the United States will reap the rewards of our partnership. Those who tether themselves to the Iranian regime should expect to share in the isolation." 1

Iran's economy is already under severe strain from high inflation, Western sanctions, and a sharp decline in oil revenues due to the war, leaving it facing even greater instability 1. In 2024, Iran's global merchandise trade reached $125 billion, with the UAE, China, and Turkey supplying nearly three-quarters of its goods imports 1. Furthermore, China, Iraq, the UAE, and Turkey account for more than two-thirds of Iran's non-oil exports 1. As Iran's largest trading partner and primary oil buyer, China's stance will be crucial to the success or failure of the US strategy 1.

Meanwhile, Russia and Iran are rerouting their exports through Caspian Sea ports such as Astrakhan, with agricultural products making up 80% of their reported trade 1. Russia has also sent drones to Iran this year 1. In a related regional development, Turkey reached a settlement with the US in July over a long-standing dispute regarding a state-owned bank that helped Iran evade sanctions 1.