澳大利亚气象部门警告，强厄尔尼诺现象、气候变化和正印度洋偶极子三股气候力量将在即将到来的春夏季叠加作用，可能给该国东南部和西南部地区带来异常炎热干燥的天气[1]。气象学家Andrew Watkins表示："我们可能甚至会面临三重打击"[1]。根据观测数据，太平洋中部海面温度目前已超过平均水平2℃以上，这是十年来首次达到与极强厄尔尼诺相关联的水平[1]。
气象学家Zhi-Weng Chua指出，"澳大利亚东南部和西南部有很高的可能性经历创纪录的温暖春季"[1]。前新南威尔士州消防救援专员Greg Mullins警告称，这种气候组合可能导致"闪电干旱"，几周内会突然陷入严重火灾地带[1]，从而增加丛林火灾风险。维多利亚州和塔斯马尼亚州预计将保持相对干燥[1]。
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is warning of an unprecedented convergence of climate forces that could bring dangerously hot and dry conditions to the nation's southeast and southwest regions during the coming spring and summer.[1] Central Pacific ocean temperatures have now exceeded average levels by more than 2 degrees Celsius—the first time in a decade that conditions associated with an extremely strong El Niño have been recorded.[1]
Three distinct climate phenomena are expected to combine their effects: climate change, El Niño, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.[1] According to meteorologist Andrew Watkins, "We may even face a triple hit."[1] This alignment is particularly concerning for southeastern and southwestern Australia, where meteorologist Zhi-Weng Chua predicts "a very high probability of experiencing record warm spring temperatures."[1] The convergence of these factors poses significant fire risks, with former New South Wales Fire and Rescue Commissioner Greg Mullins warning that the combination could trigger what he terms "flash drought"—a rapid onset of severe drought conditions that could create dangerous bushfire environments within weeks.[1] Victoria and Tasmania are expected to remain relatively dry during this period.[1]